You could be right.
Consider this though. LFL sales down 17%. Let's assume a 10% drop in total rev (I understand it could be less)
2H23 rev was 51m. Forecast in this case would be $46m
64% GP = ~$29.4m
Their operating expenses without D&A are exactly that. Add in replacement/maintenance at the D&A rate of $9.5m per half, and you get a PBT loss (excl interest from cash) of $9.5m. Your $8m PBT from the first half is wiped out.
I understand forecasts and cost bases can change. But you can only use the info available to you now.
You could be right. Consider this though. LFL sales down 17%....
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