Yes, all of those things can happen. But the opposite is also...

Yes, all of those things can happen. But the opposite is also true.

At the moment, there is negative jaws on retail. If you look at baby bunting, Kogan, Michael Hill and even the reject shop (which is supposed to do well in environments like this), they are all low. Retail is cyclical and we probably wont see a re-rate until positive comps come out (which is why Lovisa is good) or there is new information. So the question for me is, what will give these?
DSK are due for a new strategy and I expect this to come out this year. Their original strategy was to open 160 stores and we are at 150 now, so whats next? What will happen if they announce another 100 stores will be opened? What about if they move into Wholesale? I think the SP will rebound, but if it doesn't its another buying opportunity for myself.

So the next question is, what is the possibility of achieving positive comps? Well, counter intuitively, the probability I think is actually getting higher. The lower the comps go, in theory if not much changes, the easier it should be to achieve a better result next time around with some changes. I can see the moves by the CEO so I am hoping it comes to fruition, but I don't think we will see much until 2025 in this space. We might see a neutral earnings for second half but I am leaning on a loss.

IMO Investors get stuck when they look at a business and think its stuck in the mud and cant move (I did this during COVID and sold out of JB-HIFI. I thought was logical at the time, but I discounted the fact they would evolve). the reality is, there are people working on the business every day trying to make it better and solve problems. Dusk has the ability to move quite easily. It has a brand and it has cash. It can do many things. If it does nothing it will likely go down further, but its an organism and it will continue to evolve to solve problems. The fundamentals are good and the management has just had a sugar hit. As investors, our bet is that they can execute it.