Like I said before I am not an O&G Engineer so I can't answer...

Like I said before I am not an O&G Engineer so I can't answer that part. When I need some proper and well based information, I get in touch with those two friends of mine in the USA and they will guide me through. At least I know that the information they give me is honest. Most definitely I will not read what some unknown would be Geo especially when it is posted in an anonymous thread/forum where chances are that these kind of people will have a huge wheelbarrow full of personal agenda to push. It i snot the first time that it has happened you know and all you have to do is to go and look at what happened with CDU and the crap which was incessantly written there.
Now, where is CDU today.??

Now, I will go to your question ""(What do you believe is the probability of success for this well and what do you think is the range of resource that a successful well will discover?)"".

Silly question to ask my friend but I will do my best anyway. And like I said before I am not a Geo nor an O&G Engineer, I am just a bean counter which I believe I know how to handle money and make it work. But you can always ask your mates in HQ and see what response you will get.

And here we go, take it or leave it.... Well my friend all I am putting to you is as to how many wells have been drilled all over the place and how many of them have been proven to be a success. It appears to me that most of them drilled have proven to be a success while the minority of them proved not to be. But that is the game of all O&G participants. PERIOD.!!!

My personal opinion is that if we have some really good Geos and proper experts able to read between the lines of any SEISMICS, that will improve the chances of a drilling success. If we have not, chances IMO are diminished by a great extent. That is what these people are paid big money for IMO and no one will change my idea about it.

AS such, neither me, nor anyone else, will be able to tell you what the success of drilling a new well will be. Unless of course some baseless ramper will come up with some invented story and start telling us something which might not be true at all. The proof is in the pudding and the success is measured when the drilling rig has been drilling and when it will reach the pre-determined depth, let alone what they can find during the drilling itself.

But one thing is for sure that I know of. If we have had success in drilling a well in the vicinity, chances are that we might be able to drill another good one. To what extent I don't know but.....

And don't forget that we really don't know how good Dukas actually is, not are we sure that that pressure wasn't caused by a highly pressurised pocket.

As such, thanks but no thanks.

In the meantime I will wait and see if someone will come out and blow my theory out of the water. Hope so.!!