Good day Madamswer, I have sold short a basket of retailers/real...

Good day Madamswer,

I have sold short a basket of retailers/real estate linked consumption stocks and CBA as previously discussed.

The thesis of a slowing credit demand, will eat into earnings of most of these types of plays hence their expected profits will be downgraded at some point. DLX is higher quality and less prone to a major shock, but at estimated 150m profit on 2.5b MC, its far from cheap in a slowing economy. Though the downturn will hit alot hardert say SUL or HVN, but nevertheless as a basket of plays, i weight them according, DLX being only 10%.

I am long AUD listed Gold miners, on the assumptions that RBA will cut rates to 1% at some point, and a falling AUD rising Gold price, miners are cash cows, their share price reflects that. Also holding 50% cash in USD. My only concern, is that lower AUD and lower rates fuels a stock market rally as investors look for a safe haven outside of AUD, hence i think some sectors may do okay. Stop on DLX is at 7 for now.

So i have a bearish stance for 2019 and willing to change if need be... Favour commodities as they have been in a prolonged bear market, biotech and agriculture.

All the best