I think it was both. As you know, I had been getting increasingly nervous about multiples on many stocks for quite a while (as I remember you had been as well).
I (very fortuitously) started selling soon in the new FY, before the proverbial hit the fan. Was this purely lucky timing? I'm not sure. I think it safest to assume that it was.
When the correction really hit, I kicked myself that I hadn't done so more aggressively. But it is so hard to go against a party that's in full swing! (even for a grumpy curmudgeon like me, I hate to admit...).
Nevertheless, I suspect that if my portfolio had not been so heavily exposed, I would have done nothing. So, in no particular order (because I don't know the order), this is what drove my actions:
- Stretched valuations.
- Abundant over confident talk by Buffett devotees about high prices always being justified by quality, blah blah.
- My increasing anxiety about the domestic housing and credit cycle, and seeming complacency about such, especially with looming uncertainty due to RC.
- A sense that value was emerging in pockets of global markets, and the opportunity this presented to diversify ("robustify") my portfolio.
- The fact my portfolio was heavily exposed to domestic discretionary and building expenditure.
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