I posted this on the DVP thread. It may be of interest for ESS holders.
It could be that DVP shareholders need a little education on the deal their CEO has worked for them.ESS has a 11m ton deposit of 1.2% lithia resource. It is about 17 metres thick and extends to surface. A mining license has been granted recently. The resource is on a large landing holding in the centre of, probably, the best lithium district in Australia. It contains multiple prospects waiting drilling with a small programme almost completed, awaiting lab results. I won't enumerate the multiple other projects, some subject to JVs.Just a few back of the envelope figures on Pioneer Dome lithium:Assume 1m tons per year mine - there can be a very good chance that exploration of the rest of the leases will ensure mining for decades.Theoretical production of 6% spodumene 200,000Assume 75% recovery- actual production 150,000Price is a bit tricky, but the best guess is that it should exceed $4000 per tonne of 6% spod.Income $$600,000,000 per annumCash Cost should not exceed $100 a tonne of ore $100,000,000 per annumThe capital cost is of the order of $400,000,000.Bill Beament clearly intends to develop the Pioneer Dome ore without dilution, by developing his contract mining division and getting Woodlawn into production with the current funds raised. This should support the development of Pioneer Dome without further dilution. This is a bonanza deal for DVP, but also, in my opinion, a very good deal for ESS. I believe it will be accepted by ESS shareholdrs in the absence of any of two possibilities. One is the discovery od very good spodumene in the current drilling programme, or a superior offer, either of the takeover type or finance from an off-take partner.I believe that without a new information the deal is a done deal, simply on mathematics. The requirement is 75% of votes cast. I would say that they already have about 23% of votes locked in, maybe more. That leaves about 77% of potential votes. Past experience suggests that the vote of this component will be less than 50%. They only require about 59% of those likely to vote and are not already committed to get across the line. That doesn't seem a big ask to me. On my figures this is better than developing the resource by current holders. At recent market prices the dilution and time to develop give poorer returns to ESS holders. However, I think that Bill has got the best of the deal. Congratulations to DVP holders.
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