Almost got it bang on with my estimate per below. I'll have to...

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LD99

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15/10/21

12:31

Post #: 56826459
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Originally posted by steve10: ↑

Page 8 of the Investor Presentation indicates $3M revenue for Q1 FY22.

Appears to be $2.75M DW8 + $225k Kaddy thus Kaddy are making $900k on $18M GMV = 5%.

$2.75M seems low for DW8/Parton's.

DW8 July - 30,468 cases, up from 27,087 in June = +12.5% MOM
Aug - 33,500 estimate
Sept - 37,000 estimate

About 101k cases for DW8 alone. $0.5M DW8 June revenue mentioned in Parton's Investor Presentation / 27,087 cases = $18.46 per case.

101k x $18.46 = $1.864M. $2.75M Q1 FY22 DW8/Parton's - $1.864M DW8 = $886k via Parton's in leau of 2 months x $1.25M = $2.5M.

Parton's may be down 65% due to lockdowns?

Should have been about $1.85M DW8 + $2.5M Parton's = $4.35M + $225k for Kaddy = $4.575M

They mention $21M DW8 estimated annual revenue pre Kaddy merger = $5.25M per quarter being $0.5M x 3 months DW8 + $1.25M x 3 months Parton's.

Kaddy annual revenue is about $900k.

Combined annual revenue post merger with Kaddy will be $21.9M.

$34.25M Kaddy acquisition price / $0.9M revenue = x38 multiple.

Kaddy most likely cash burning $2M pa or $500k per quarter with 21 staff/offices etc.

$21.9M combined revenue x 38 = $832.2M MC not factoring in any cash / 2.63B shares = 31.5c SP.

I expect GMV to increase from $18M to around $54M within 12 months. Thereafter GMV should at least double every year. Kaddy orders currently shipped via third parties will be shipped via DW8/Parton's further increasing revenue. Most likely Kaddy 5% fees will be increased to 10% in line with DW8 also increasing revenue.

Revenue run rate will be $30M+ within 12 months.

Most likely will achieve their target of $1B GMV & 9.5M cases shipped in about 5 years. Could also be as soon as 3 years with further acquisitions.

$1B GMV x 12% fees = $120M pa all gross profit
9.5M cases x $20 = $190M pa x 20% = $38M gross profit

$310M revenue & $158M gross profit (about 51% margin) for 5% Australia only market share.

Then they can expand globally if they haven't started already & they can also expand into new industries with a wide range of products.

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Almost got it bang on with my estimate per below. I'll have to change Q2 2022 soon...!

DW8 Price at posting: 6.2¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
8 Upvote

2 Great analysis

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