Ann: E-Lovu signs first 3 year commercial agreement, page-32

it is a tricky one... is it low or is it too high still? depends on 1 thing which is certainty of funding or at the very least confirmation that something is in train to get either or both of funding and revenue on the way,

I think each investment needs to be taken at an individual level however the more you do something the more you understand (or try to understand) what worked or didn't work and why. Seneca capital are fairly switched on people but they get things wrong as well, you must be doing alright if they are your advisors so maybe you're a bit more seasoned than humility suggests?

Anyway... I have been thinking where in my investment memory does HMD sit and there are a few with a similar track record of development followed by stagnation that then either emerged from that state higher or wiped out. I recently exited from eye-telligence which was an unlisted ai thingo for ophthalmology. They had a deal with Spec Savers and things looking like it was going to go big etc when all that sort of fell over and things didn't look so bright and rosy.. then all of a sudden some Americans liked what they were doing and bought them out for cash and shares (bit of a short form story but most of the key events are there). I cashed out for tax reasons but it is all going great guns with newer better funded co-owners. There's another business that I ended up invested in which is Cyber sort of one, they had things going ok and a bit of growth when they landed a good contract who unfortunately went bankrupt leaving the Cyber mob in a bit of a pickle. I took some equity for helping plug their cashflow hole and for a year or 2 not a lot really went their way until all the hacking fun of the last 18 months or so and thanks to having the right relationships in Canberra they are now flying, up 8x on my investment so far. That company was the right product, the right market the right pretty much everything except for cashflow... then one day it had the cash start hitting the account and the last raise was to exponentially increase their headcount because of all the new business they were fielding. It's unlisted so I can't sell if I wanted too... hence why I recently backed Liquidise with an angel investment.

I'm not sure if you remember Melbourne IT, a great business from not so long ago. A bloke named Andrew Reitzer took over to turn the business around, I new him from once upon a time and thought I'd buy some shares as he was pretty switched on. Long story short... lost every cent. Sometimes they are down and on the way out because they are cactus and just waiting to die. Cleanspce (ASX: CSX) Doctor care anywhere (ASX: DOC) and Zeebit (ASX: ZBT) are some other cracking good wastes of my money that I've had too. Cleanspace deserves mention on these threads as old mate Ron W was leading that one... I've blown up a ton of good money on dumb choices. Just last week I had a fantastic week on the options contracts and banked in a couple of days what a lot of people would have been happy with for a few months salary, I just thought I'd push the envelope a tiny bit more and almost ended up with having to pony up $1.3m on close of trade... took a small hit on that trade but it served as pleasant reminder of hubris etc. point of all that is that not everything works out.

for my mind and from what I've heard, the absolute most pressing issue is cashflow. Without clarity on that and coupled with end of year tax loss selling there is simply no reason for the share price to advance. Buggers me sideways why it's drawn out this long??? It should have been addressed in April.


I don't think it's still a fashionable invest thesis but dumb luck also works pretty well too. I did pretty well out of Anaconda Nickel and Aquarius Platinum when I was much much younger... I bought into Anaconda because they are a pretty cool snake and my girlfriend at the time was an Aquarius star sign so I bought those too... A great mate of mine bought a put counter to my call contract ($11.25) on QBE in the last minutes of the trading day of September 11 2001. That night the USA had a tragedy that was completely unforeseen and the Twin Towers were unfortunately reinsured by QBE which plunged instantly into the high $2 range from the high $10 mark, that 1 trade made my good friend quite well off for a young man about town... total luck

Good luck mate and thanks for your well thought out and constructive posts