@dunnomuch - direct reply wouldn't post...
I'm not advised by Seneca, but I really like the CEOs views and follow their stock analysis and recommendations...
I'm pretty new to the whole investing game. I'd been a big saver, had a kid, bought a place, and then jumped into stocks after years of a mate suggesting it.
My luck - pretty much started my investing journey at the very height of the market. Also jumped in before I truly knew what I was doing, and made some pretty daffy choices and fundamental mistakes.
I'm a self critical guy, and at least some of the time, it is constructive criticism. But one I mentioned a few posts back was a harsh lesson. Bought the hype, bought the story, bought the narrative from a very well spoken CEO that big things were coming, and ultimately lost out in fairly spectacular fashion.
My experience there, as I've said before, was 'just keep holding, it will bounce back' all the way down to 'well not really worth selling now' to 'alright, it's kind of hilarious now'. It is a very tough decision to determine when things have gone too far, and the bounce back may be less likely than selling out and preserving what's left is wise.
I understand cognitive bias (and HC is a great place to observe them all in the wild... current sub-forum excepted, of course) and how detrimental it can be. And I'm telling myself I will stick to exit strategies from now on (if only I knew how to determine what they should be!)... my initial one was to sell a % and free carry, but then you see those gains and start thinking 'why sell some now, when it's flying!'
It's an intimidating thing, the market. Another problem for me was having some big wins early, and fooling myself into thinking it was an easy game. The wins evaporated, a few bounced back, and I watched them evaporate once more. Then the doubt creeps in, and you can end up in a bit of paralysis... don't want to sell out and miss a bounce back, but also knowing well enough that the bounce backs don't always happen and these companies can go to 0.
At least this a pleasant forum to be around, on the whole... not much 'backing up the truck' and 'scooping up everything on offer at these bargain prices' HCisms, and not much of the flagrant baiting and niggling that certain unhappy people amuse themselves with. Some of the sub-forums on here are absolute flotsam. Really childish stuff.
I still think the device is fantastic (and proven!), and the idea and eco-system behind it seem practical and well-regarded by the industry people. I'd have loved this when we were waiting for the due date. But that doesn't always equal success.
Riskier companies than this one have succeeded, and safer companies have failed. A great product is no guarantee.
I's love to hear more from the company, sure... but also know well enough that hearing from the company isn't always the answer or even beneficial. I heard quite a lot from that other company I lost on - problem was most of it wasn't worth the bandwidth it took to hear it.
Always appreciate your take on things, so enjoyed the reply above. Hope this post wasn't too far off topic... but yeah, this one is tough to gauge. There is a business model there, and it would be a revenue maker (and as you've said yourself, wide margin) with the potential for large penetration. But very difficult to assess on the numbers alone how likely that is. Hospitals and obstetricians will either use it, or they won't. And we sort of have more than enough to suggest both outcomes are equally possible!
