Interesting analysis. If you wanted to compare like for like, than using Nearmap is a no brainer. We should make a few things crystal clear.
1. While SFI and NEA will compete in Australia, the target market for SFI will be slightly different. SFI will get the builders and solar businesses but SFI have developed a system that has government and military capabilities with potential contract sizes of $1m or more. In addition SFI will get Eagelview's customers in Australia immediately as well.
2. SFI cost of capture is significantly lower than anything in the market and the technology can achieve multiple captures per quarter because SFI can fly above the controlled airspaces. No one else can do this.
3. The blue sky is in the US. SFI will have 100% coverage of the US market at NO COST, PURE ROYALTY. While the Australian operations will generate substantial NPAT margins the US market will propel the business into a league of its own.
Nearmap ran from 7cps in 2012/13 to 80cps by 2014, purely on the Australian operations only. NEA generate unbelievable profits from the Australian business (40% NPAT margins in FY14) and then started making losses to fund the US expansion. The NEA share price spiked to 96.5cps (+193%) by 28/10/2016 on an announcement that stated US revenues increased from $0.4m to $0.6m. That gave NEA a market cap of circa $373m.
Now if NEA can run as hard as it did on $0.6m in US revenues while reporting -$7.1m loss in FY2016, then the potential value of SFI in my opinion has to be much higher. SFI will earn $0.6m in the first month of operation with Eagleview at ZERO cost.
Based on the enthusiasm of the aerial imagery space it is reasonable to assume a $373m market cap for SFI is an appropriate starting point for the re-rating in the next few months.
SFI Price at posting:
9.3¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
