I've always enjoyed your logic @alhambra.Using your analogy of...

I've always enjoyed your logic @alhambra.
Using your analogy of the 4 balls.
I remember SI mentioned that the P3 trials have 50% of success/ approval.

So we have 4 P3+ atm.

How would you rate them?
1. aGVHD - 99%; the ODAC 9-1 vote is very telling and therefore very difficult for the FDA to go against it. On what basis can they go against it? Maybe conditional approval, but FDA approval
2. Covid-19 ARDS; Given that aGVHD will be approved, EAP for MIS-C, and NIH sponsored trial. I would say this is likely. The only two concerns are when will the trial stop early due to overwhelming efficacy and producing large quantities. I'll say 75%
3. CLBP - let's leave this at 50% atm, until the readout
4. CHF - let's leave this at 50% atm, until the readout

So what has been priced in; and what hasn't?
With your clear and unbiased mind atm - can you provide a % of success the above?