I admit to being slightly offended by two comments passed earlier in the thread (but I’ll get over it). This is why I don’t go on Facebook and why I see chat forums as to be watched to gain information and learn, and not for actual chatting, which I avoid other than to ask an occasional question if I think there is a regular poster who can help me…. Even then I’ll keep further chat to simply expressing gratitude. I am a naturally exuberant person and some people take me the wrong way. I’ll try to keep this post succinct, but I have a lot to say. I find the best way I can do that is bullet points.
- In response to an earlier post, the removal of the 50m orders that I thought might be cappers (and I still suspect they were) was inconclusive. This is because it happened just before 4pm. If it was me I would do the same. Putting a big order into pre-open or the closing auction leaves you exposed to “pounce”tactics in the last seconds before settlement is set. You can end up with an unintended outcome simply because there was insufficient time to hit the relevant keys on your keyboard.
- -I am not “new”. I have been in and out of GGP a number of times over the past few years. I already mentioned the two most recent SPPs in a prior post. I have had a couplke of decent wins and one big loss in the stock. I am close to breakeven. I am hopeful that my current position achieves the desired outcome but nothing is for certain… I am happy to be on the larger side of a 70/30 risk probability when it comes to markets, The only time it gets better than that is the occasional risk free arbitrage that pops up for retail holders only (eg the SPP trade I described in an earlier post).
- I know virtually nothing about oil and gas, but there are some really good O&G men who regularly post on Hot Copper. Even though I only log on a couple of times a week, and I’m something of a “hot copper stalker”, I read everything my list of key posters writes (and not much else on the GGP thread). These guys are world-class, and they are free! And the most important thing of all… there is a constant flow of information…. almost every day 365 days a year. These guys have helped save my bacon on GGP more than once. So a big thankyou – I think you know who you are. Shelby, you aren’t one of them but there seems to be a pattern to your posts, and you seem to think number of posts outweighs value in each post. We are very different people – that is obvious! Nonetheless I am sure there are fellow cynics out there who enjoy your stuff, and you add occasional humour to the forum.
- Sadly few if any of the respected Hot Copper O&G guys seem to have made any money at all out of GGP. I’ve done better than most (ie my wins and losses roughly break even). That fills me with guilt, especially as one of the best doesn’t even seem to be a holder at the moment and may miss the potential upside. I want to repay them. The only thing I can offer is my trading nouse – I’ve got bugger all else that would interest them. Guys I might be a pipsqueak in market volume terms but I’m not bad in the things I focus on, if you want to risk trusting me. If any one of you O&G guys would like me to post when my model gives a buy signal, let me know… it’s the least I can do to say thankyou. I was kind of proud to contribute today because it was a big day where the stuff I’m good at can actually add value. I was happy to share my thoughts.
- In response to EMC2’s observation a little while ago… volume at the close was tiny in comparison with today’s volume, but we traded about $20,000 of shares in the closing settlement today and that’s similar volume to an entire day’s trading on some recent days… even yesterday . I think it needs to be viewed in that light. I think volume will drop noticeably in coming days and we will look back and realise that the first 30 mins today was people getting set for potential upside from the wells. Nothing more. The cynics need to see the wood for the trees. I would observe those shares never came out today, and I suspect won’t come out for a few weeks while the wells potential becomes clearer. They are sitting in portfolios. They are not sitting in a bottom drawer – these guys will be watching every release intently and analysing it for any indication that these wells will make GGP a 0.5c stock, a 1c stock, a 2c stock or maybe a dreaded 0.1c stock if they get a duster. I expect releases related to the wells to become more and more price sensitive from now on. The delayed reaction to yesterdays good news was a reflection of the fact that GGP had been comatose for months – nothing more than a plaything for the convertible holders. I agree with the earlier poster who suggested the converts are now out of the market. If they served notice on the company today they would have got a VWAP below 0.003, whereas if they serve notice tomorrow or beyond it will be 0.004ish… a massive difference. Todays volume was so big that it will be the VWAP for the next week, assuming I’m right in expecting a big drop-off in volume in coming days. Why is all this hard to believe? I’ve tried to paint a picture that anyone would see as rational and logical.
- I try to be as transparent and open when I post (in the hope that others will be too). As someone pointed out I've told you what I've done and the data is there for anybody to see.
- I still believe that the bulk of price action today related to a reaction to Monday afternoon’s announcement, which ironically was posted right at the top of every thread people spoke on today, yet rarely got mentioned. Perhaps at a minimum rereading it is in order after the first 30 mins we saw today. How the wells develop is going to be the key driver of GGP over coming weeks… . As it turned out my models didn’t tell me a lot in the wash of things (I have already said my models are fairly useless for daytrading – they give a view of one week plus). Yes the "strong" buy signal was triggered just before 4pm but it was a false signal for the reasons outlined above around the 50m sells. I expect it to revert back to a more moderate buy tomorrow morning once volume on the sell side expands.
- I am completely honest when I say I don’t want to be rich. Last year I virtually stopped trading in October because I’d made enough to live off comfortably... I only did small trades for the rest of the year to test my models. Its not the first time summer has started early for me. The man who always wants more is the man who never finds happiness. Why do such a high % of the population (and even higher % of stock traders) not understand that. If the market gods smile on GGP over the next few weeks, I'll decide whether to stop early or keep going and donate the excess (if any) to charity. I've done that before, and its not weird - in America they even have a name for it - philanthropy.
- I also believe this is a good stock to play in whatever direction your sentiment because the current board seem to be straight shooters if the quality of GGP announcements in 2013 is a guide
- This will be my last post for a while. I only ever intended to make one, but I ran into apparent length of post issues, and the sleep fairy, and a massive day that got my brain over-stimulated.
One final thought on how you guys could improve the forum when I’m gone again – don’t let cynicism get in the way of rational thought. The forum wasn’t like this in 2011 and 2012 but the cynicism has really crept in. A casual visitor, and I suspect there would have been many observers today , would have interpreted todays discussion as the posters not trusting each other. If a visitor doesn’t think there is honesty and trust in the posts, they won’t come back, because they can't find value. I certainly wouldn’t have come back were it not for the wealth of O&G knowledge to be tapped… and as our new wells progress many of us (especially me) will value their observations.
The where are all the buyers thread that some of the cynics are talking on is beyond belief. Do you guys really think that because a buyer doesn’t post on Hot Copper they mustn’t be real. Well under 10% of the potential buyer universe would actually even look at Hot Copper let alone read the stuff. And you guys are doing a reasonable job of discouraging them in the future (see comment above). Thankyou Potgut for adding some rationality… hopefully that will be the end of that thread!
More rational thought and rational discussion is needed…. Eg Potgut post more and Shelby less for example (I notice Shelby has been suspended... thats a start). Looking back at my own posts today there was some rubbish... mea culpa. my over-exuberance at the massive price action created a need for you guys to search for the wood for the trees. I apologise and hope this is a better quality post.
Good luck to all of you, and I mean that. And a special thanyou for the patience of anyone who actually got to the bottom of any of my posts! At least i fitted it in one this time (the secret - I got my brother in law to proof read the above and he made a few changes to make it more professional).
GGP Price at posting:
12.5¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
