AMD 16.7% 0.3¢ arrow minerals ltd

I don't know the project, but it seems to be a prudent and...

  1. 60 Posts.
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    I don't know the project, but it seems to be a prudent and balanced approach. Also note there is no cash payment for this project, it is money in the ground, so there will be no long lunches.

    One of the problems (among many) of most juniors is that they form a deep emotional attachment to their projects that they fought so hard and probably caught malaria to acquire. They treat them like their children and cling onto them far past their use by date, rather than a simple business asset to be constantly assessed in terms of its cost and revenue potential.

    What juniors are good at, is going into the smelly parts of the world and finding good projects - but then what, do they explore themselves or JV our to a partner with deeper pockets. The usual assumption is to explore themselves, but this is simplistic and often wrong.

    Boromo spent years in Burkina looking for and securing good projects - sensibly, they grabbed as much as they could. But now it is likely that they have too much to be able to effectively explore with the cash they have or are likely to be able to raise. Holding ground costs money and African nations no longer tolerate squatting on land, and so it is very much a case of use it or lose it.

    Given the success they have had in recent drilling, that project is now their obvious focus, which means they no longer have the cash to explore the others, unless they raise a lot more money and so dilute you to the shit house. And so it is purely a question of weighing the risks - raising money to drill the deposit they know is very low risk. Raising more money, and thus increasing the dilution to go back to a new grassroots project, is very high risk. If the share price were through the roof, then perhaps the decision would be different, but at these prices, the extra dilution required to have a punt on this project is just not worth it.

    The company now seems to be run by grownups, and they have just run the numbers on the risk/reward profile and made a cold hard business decision - they should be applauded for this.

    I could spend a day giving you a lesson on mineral exploration economics and the Project Generator Model;, but instead watch this. Rick Rule is possibly the most successful junior mining investor in history.


 
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