They haven't mentioned the size of the one-off effect of the JPY/billet premium reductions that give a boost to the bottom line, or the extent to which the lower billet prices will translate to ALL Australian extrusion competitors. This SHOULD have been explained in the Media Release.
The accumulated tax benefits cannot be accounted for until their is virtual certainty of recoupment and judging by their focus on low price/low margin to fill their factories it is unlikely for them to get back to the pre-2009 glory days. They have been focussing on supplying big window makers like JeldWen and Trend who will be impacted by the continued rise in prefabricated windows and shopfront mouldings from China as the SYD / MEL apartment boom crashes.
The Circumvention/ dumping duties won against P&O, Oceanic, Success Aluminium and other companies linked to Panasialum (
http://www.adcommission.gov.au/case...i-circumventioninquiryPUBLICRECORDVERSION.pdf ) aren't worth anything since these companies have been wound up and replaced by new importers from new sources.
Capral remains the highest cost aluminium extruder by far in Australia, with the heavy legacy overheads and overhangs from poor management since 2009, when the share price tanked.
Why are sellers selling at these prices? Try being locked into an almost ZERO LIQUIDITY dog stock for 7 years and you'll begin to understand why, IMHO.
GLADYOR
(20min delay)