Would be nice but most Navies are built domestically so unless Austal already has operations in that country not much chance of success (even Philippines seems to be holding out). Maybe US builds more ships but I think Austal's problem here is that there is a very limited budget for new builds and even if they do decide on a new build it takes a long time between award of contract to actual construction. A contract awarded even today may not lead to revenue/profit until 2022/23.
As for Australia, well I am very nervous about ASB's relationship with the Australian Govt. We haven't won a decent sized contract in our history in Australia and the Govt seems to love European shipbuilders for any substantive contract.
If we see upside it will be from FFG being shared with ASB, a couple of new ferry orders to keep PH and Vietnam going and at an absolute stretch we actually win the LAND 8710 contract.
Downside is expensive closure of Philippines and to a lesser extent Vietnam, followed by wind down of workforce in Mobile.
Ann: Earnings Guidance Update, page-65
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