Lithium sentiment is in the toilet. The GT1 projects have potential but when lithium sentiment is as poor as it is currently you could cherry pick the best management team and board and all that would do is increase outgoings as they seek higher fees and probably also tank the share price even faster.
As context this is the last six months for 3 significant Canadian operations. GT1 is down 35% (ouch). WR1 is down 63% and PMT is down 72%. Its hard to get any share price traction when other names like this are tanking meaning GT1 is relatively speaking getting more expensive than them.
One of the things the GT1 board does have is experience and they will know how quickly the lithium market and sentiment can change. While I've read various commentary with multi-year distant dates as to when the market will balance, I don't believe that. IMO opinion what has happened is enough new and expansion projects have come online to mean still rapid demand growth has been met by additional supply. Demand is still growing rapidly and I suspect some/most models are understating the demand growth that exists as its not easy to model. Are these models that can't even get supply from under construction African mines like Sabi Star / Arcadia right going to capture the demand from inefficiencies in new battery plants and new use cases like heavy transport, shipping, trains etc?
Back to supply / demand. Fundamentally if there's more product around than demand, prices fall. If there's a shortage of product, prices rise. This has been proven again and again over centuries. We have had broadly flat lithium prices for most of 2023 and currently there is a small increase in prices currently. IMO talk about a large supply surplus that is building is incorrect. If this building supply surplus were correct, prices would still be falling. If the market is close to balanced, growing quickly and also loses supply soon from Bald Hill, PLS's old Altura plant and Mt Cattlin with less than projected from KV and more likely than not a slower ramp up than expected from Mt Holland and Goulamina, tipping to a deficit could be much sooner than many realise. I think this is why the GT1 management are continuing to spend at a faster rate because they want to catch that first wave of the new lithium cycle and they realise its closer than many think.
As an aside, I'm not sure how I should interpret SYA and PLL preparing a comprehensive slide deck around a North American lithium merger and have the complete absence of GT1 within the comparatives while including Avalon's separation rapids project, Critical elements Rose project and RochTech's Georgia Lake project. I guess you need to draw the line somewhere.
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Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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