Thanks for your comments, there will be inflationary pressure on...

Thanks for your comments, there will be inflationary pressure on costs this year as prices for a lot of things e.g. diesel, wages, freight, carbon etc. as prices rebound after the drop in prices caused by Covid-19. To the extent that these costs were predictable at the time of the latest update, you would hope that management have included them in their EBITDA forecast update on 14th September. In terms of your specific points:

• Per the 2020 annual report across the company there is 0.05 tonnes of carbon emission per tonne mined. A price increase from $20/t to $70/t for carbon would equate to an increase from $1/t to $3.5/t for all coal sold. With forecast sales of 1.4 million tonnes that equates to an EBITDA impact of $3.5m - assuming the $50/t cost increase is for the whole 12 months
• My understanding is that most export coal is shipped FOB which means the buyer is responsible for all freight costs once Bathurst have loaded the coal onto the boat at Lyttelton Harbour . If I am correct any adjustment for increased freight from Lyttleton Harbour relative to other ports is likely factored into the 75% of the benchmark coking coal price which management forecast they will achieve.
• Kids007 and Investor_Jackson are correct, the final payment for the Solid Energy deal is Q2 FY22. There was $1.0m of accrued deferred consideration at 30 June 2021. It way well be a little higher due to sales between 30 June 2021 and December 2021, however this will be the final payment, and is another reason that this year will see 'super' profits and cashflows, mostly in H2.

Other than the movements in coking coal price and how much of that is locked in/or lost through hedging, I personally think the biggest risk and upside this year will be around production volumes at Stockton. If management were able to increase production by 100kt through increased productivity, employees, shifts etc., this could add EBITDA of $13m (at a H2 super profit assumed average margin of NZ$200/t). Likewise if there is a production issue/supply chain interruption and production is down 100kt in H2, then EBITDA goes down $13m.