Nice analysis. I would add that it looks like management are...

Nice analysis. I would add that it looks like management are confident of the extra sales in December to get to the 575kt shipped for the quarter. This would mean Dec sales would be about 240kt instead of the average of170kt for first two months of the quarter. This would give Blair Athol an EBITDA of $30m for the month plus whatever they can make on export coal out of SA - say $5m. As a result your December YTD EBITDA figure of $116.4m looks about $15m light and will be $131.4m (assuming the sales are made). That is a 6 month EBITDA very close to the current to the current market value - $139M as I post this.

You are right about the coal price outlook, it is definitely on its way up again. The current forward thermal coal curve for H2 FY 22 average is $152.5/t which is just above their US$147/t forecast for the debt repayment, meaning that the second half of the year will produce a similar EBITDA to the firs if my calcs are correct.