IKN term 1 2024 domestic enrolments was 485 and term 2 domestics was also 485 (slide 10 of H1 results preso) so if there's 25-30% drop out they're presumably replacing them? I'm just using current figures (presumably including the impact of any drop outs).
I accept there's a wide range of possible outcomes but I would have thought EDU revenues next 3-4 years might look something like:
2024: $32m 2025: $27m 2026: $23m 2027: $20m
I'm absolutely guesstimating on a highly fluid and uncertain situation but if you're asserting these guesstimates are delusional then please provide your own for each year.
Don't tell me, you'd just prefer to take pot shots and come back and tell us you were right all along.....
PS: TAFE deserves to be better resourced for a whole array of vocational training and a bunch of private training providers don't deserve to survive. To the extent that EDU is impacted by that adjustment it's a risk we take as investors. While acknowledging that, the conception and implementation of the ESOS policy to date has been poor.
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