Ann: EDU to undertake on-market and selective share buy-backs, page-4

I expect that the Board and Management will have been running some scenarios about what the next few years will look like on the basis that the restrictions go ahead.

Let's say the new limits are implemented and kept on hold until 2027 when most or all of the current students have exited.

IKN NSE limit: 200 pa
IKN current domestic enrolments: 485 (slide 10 of H1 results presentation)
ALG NSE limit: 447 pa

But if ALG courses are average 2 years and IKN average 3 years doesn't that still mean they'll have an average of 600 overseas IKN students and 894 ALG students plus their domestic cohort (say 485 still) at any one time for a total approaching 2,000 students annually?

Even using a basic annual cost of $10K per student still throws up $20m pa. These are all guesstimates so lots of assumptions and uncertainty here but even on this arguably pessimistic scenario management would have 3 years to manage a gradual transition down from $30m+ pa to $20m pa.

In which case it would seem that their success or otherwise will depend on their ability to manage their cost base (rationalise courses, lease expiries etc.) to minimise their overheads.

$20m pa would appear to be a decent annual budget to support a business educating 2,000 students but not if they persist for too long with the level of overheads they've been getting used to over the last 24 months.

I'd welcome comments on my guesstimates and assumptions above.