True, but nor do they include any tailoring of intakes towards longer duration courses (if my new student intake is limited I'd start targeting longer duration courses and students).
As you say, attrition is higher now but with revenue currently $30m+ pa they're arguably well placed to deal with it and we'll see that in this year's results. There's no reason to expect attrition to still be high in 2026 and beyond once the limits have been in place for a while.
I also haven't allowed for adjustment of pricing towards higher revenue courses. Once again, if the limit is new student intake surely you'd target higher value intake.
At the end of the day the country needs Community and Child Care workers that EDU produces. I could make an argument that if we're not importing that cohort through migration then more locals will need to be trained so the domestic numbers could increase.
On balance, do you see a sustainable load of 2,000 students and $20m pa revenue as that much of a stretch?
(I should add as a general comment that when I expect company management teams to behave rationally I'm sometimes disappointed)
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