> On balance, do you see a sustainable load of 2,000 students...

> On balance, do you see a sustainable load of 2,000 students and $20m pa revenue as that much of a stretch?

I think it borders on delusion, particularly with a Labor government in power ideologically determined to move vocational training back into the TAFE system leading to a limit on domestic expansion opportunities.

As far as attrition is concerned, you would normally expect to see around 25-35% drop out rate, slightly more for domestics and less for internationals. With PR opportunities becoming extremely limited, I would expect a far higher 'give up' rate among internationals going forward. I can't see where you have factored this in.

In the international space, it's possible that there will be some upward movement on pricing and downward movement on acquisition costs, notably commissions to agents. In balance, onshore recruitment channels are slamming shut, and EDU is notoriously poorly positioned to recruit substantially directly from offshore. In the very immediate term, there will be huge discounting of 2024 start dates as providers scramble to max out seats prior to commencements being capped. In many cases, seats will be offered at below cost of delivery. Go figure.

I believe the conversation will be much more around survival than hitting $20m revenues.