We all know of Graeme... although I seem to remember that he sold out of his holding when it relisted ( but could be mistaken). Graeme presumably knows Fred Bart from Audio Pixels (AKP) - a company that he's been analysing for some time. Fred (net worth over US$45m) and wife Cheryl are 2 of the 3 directors, so keeping it in the family. Fred has many other business interests, so can probably quickly spot good opportunities. His brother may have a few issues allegedly according to press reports though, eg:
Fred is also a director of Noxopharm (NOX) in which Shawn van Boheemen is the CFO ( An accountant and a Justice of the Peace in NSW). So we have a corporate entrepreneur and analyst and an accountant. No one with specific technical insight, knowledge or experience of the water business ( and it's not simply selling product), let alone PET's specific interactions with government departments. And they have no legal or audit background (apart from limited stuff through Shawn).
We may be damned if we do and if we don't here. I'd expect this new BOD to be sniffing a quick business opportunity. I doubt that any of them own significant shares ( incl Graeme) now, so their plan could simply be to do a share consolidation of say 20 or 50 : 1 basis, then do a fresh capital raise for which they are major parties. This effectively wipes out most of the current shareholders' value and puts us on the scrap heap. They will obviously need to raise capital, and I'd expect them to do it to maximally advantage their own interests. Then they could divest, amalgamate etc to maximise their returns. A simple strategy that's been done countless times before. All you need is a cash-flow distressed entity with assets that can be monetised.
Nor do I like the alternative of selling out to SePro of all companies ( and I'd warned both Freedman and the current board of Sepro's game plan a couple of times...now coming to fruition). As noted before, any return to shareholders will be small... I'd expect $5 million max after many months or years since all legal issues need to be settled and, once delisted , good luck getting regular updates. And, as you'll still own the shares, you won't be able to claim the tax losses, I suspect. So max 1 cent per share return after x years.
I'm not presently persuaded either way as they're both lousy deals for current shareholders. We need a white knight that knows the industry. The alternative board needs to explain their business case well before the vote. And raising debt rather than re-capitalising would go some way to alleviating my concerns. And just like Freedman before him, Bart has the financial clout to do this. But I really do fear that we are stuffed. Such a tragedy. I wonder if the thieving scumbag perpetrators that started this landslide off can sleep at night... I know I can't.
PET Price at posting:
2.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)