Just to get this right; I still think this stock is grossly undervalued and current/fair share price should be well above 10c. But it is not, for reasons that I don't want to argue about any longer (not the current management's fault is all I am going to say). Have bought much lower than 10c once and sold a lot at 10.5c and still think it is possible to do this again.
In terms of modelling, I must confess that some recent developments have surprised me (both to the positive and negative), including that the $250k loan was repaid a little later (only 3 weeks though) than I anticipated. One possible explanation for that is that I got this wrong re SP3 anns/timelines, another one is that revenues are going to be up, meaning that they needed those $250k to produce stock that was ordered at short notice, which is good. That, however, may delay profits by a quarter. Regarding CR modeling, they obviously did not get the full amount they asked for in the recent CR, which I personally see as a positive, as a) they got what they needed and b) avoided further/unnecessary dilution (in that sense, the laps of 11,988,176 performance rights for directors was good news, too). Short answer: my model does not show the need for a further CR. However, if they can acquire cash flow/profitable companies that also have moat/tech/IP complementary to theirs, then why not raise a little more in the future. That said, I would prefer to get to 2.9c (and then with a bit of luck to 6.6c) first. Ideally that will happen before the election in the US, as I am slightly worried re global markets after then but also because we have a deadline of 07 Sept 2024
Have a good weekend.
