i wrote a response which took about an hour and then HC once again wiped my post when posting. Apologies but I don't have the effort to re-type it in full.
The long and short of it was, a good example of T/A being applicable is shown on the weekly. Where after running to 17c it pulled back an eventually found support at the exact previous high on the long term weekly.
View attachment 2928683T/A users might have no idea what the company does, nor care. Sometimes they've changed business completely but someone watching T/A like me would have thought, that looks like a solid support line i'll buy there. Set a 10% stop loss and be out the back door if it fails.
I dont use fibonacci or eilliot wave much but search W3 booster and W3hunter. Those 2 are guns and if you follow their track record which includes a lot of speccies and various stocks they're not doing it by luck.
Technically, charts show sum of all knowns and unknowns and without having to spend 12-24hrs (my usually due diligence timeframe for initial entry) a technical one can take me around 15-30mins to do properly. So on that basis alone, it looks like market thinks this is around fair value that what the support and base would suggest.
my day 1 analysis suggest that the bears suggest financials which are embellished and maybe not sustainable long term. Additionally that they, don't support unethical reporting and think this will go belly up. Fair.
Would appear the bulls say, well yes i can see how the figures may not accurately represent future earnings but there is actual cash in the bank and we expect next quarterly might not be as good. But i like the sector and with a reputable appointment (from investor perspective, not necessarily sector specific) i think there's potential for other revenue streams to be generated. If not are we any worse than any other credit raising company.
If I want to peak over and weigh in on the discussion i think it's really speculation as to which way the apple falls there until further announcements or the next quarterly with updated figures which will either validate the views of bears or bulls. As is the usual way with stock markets and news, if it exceeds or underwhelms expectations this is what will drive the price up or down. For now i don't really care, it's a technical trade and the S/P will tell me with in reasonable accuracy which is more likely and maybe news and some reviewing in the interim will reveal more insights.
IMV if the stock was absolutely kosher in terms of revenue and profits then it would trade a lot higher. 7m odd profit per quarter, annualised run rate 28m. In this type of sector PE ratios are around 20. which 560m MC. Given that it trades at 1/10th that value and has cash in the bank i'd say with reasonable good judgement that the market has factored the prevailing concerns that posters have flagged here that these revenues aren't probably expected short/medium term. Where value can appear is where the market overpriced the risk. like resource companies in poor jurisdictions. I made 1000% in a poor jurisdiction resource company. Market had probably unfairly discounted the share.
At current market cap, IMV they could make zero money and s/p could what halve? what's the upside 100m MC is sustainable with 5m annualised profit. Have already done in once in quarter - maybe they prove market wrong with a new revenue stream or continue some level of annualised subscription. Could spend 12-24hrs here and maybe get slightly closer to an answer, but for now i'll stick with the trade on technicals and see if market news begins to validate one way or the other.
stop loss and trailing stop loss engaged.
Not sure if that answers you and apologies the first post deleted, was a little more technically explains regarding indicators etc.
SF2TH
