Thanks for taking the time to provide a counter view point. I greatly appreciate an informed opinion and bear case.
If I'm understanding correctly, you're saying the Australian market isn't big enough to support a listed, stand-alone MGA? Ensurance won't scale enough to remain viable through the insurance cycle?
Given the Aus business appears to be currently profitable (half year rpt) and scaling up, I was thinking there would be some operating leverage to come through. Perhaps this is inflated by rates on professional lines being at a temporary high and it doesn't work through the cycle? I'm aware of the cyclical nature of the industry and commoditised nature of the product.
I would have thought the downside is capped though. Current enterprise value is ~$13m. I would have thought the Aus business is worth more than the UK in a trade sale (greater than $8m)? i.e. even the "sell the last asset, become a cashed shell and look for another deal." scenario wouldn't be a disaster?
ENA Price at posting:
24.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held