EGR's wider strategy is an upstream mine feeding potentially 4 or more downstream purification plants. The now somewhat old financials were for a US$35m EBITDA from a 20ktpa purification plant. If you were to build four of those with the same margin as old releases it would be US$140m of EBITDA. With five you have US$175 million of EBITDA. Add on the EBITDA of the Tanzania mine and with the prospect of increased output from Tanzania you could be looking at over US$200m+ of EBITDA. If EGR were to grow to this sort of scale, it would be surprising if they had an EBITDA to MC ratio below 5 and would most likely be well above that. So the holistic strategy EGR has (excluding recycling) is looking at something in excess of $1 billion market cap numbers. The German's have started to look at the possibilities...
This of course needs funding and there will be JV's, equity raisings, loans or grants along the way. Its anyone's guess how they all unfold over time. I've however used US$1b not A$1b so there's a bit of a buffer from that. Also, the full potential of Epanko isn't captured in the calculation above and no solid numbers yet exist around recycling.
Sorry if the numbers used are not the most recent one's, they were what I found quickly scanning ASX but they are a reason why the "thought exercise" that happened to reference $1b, wasn't a pie in the sky value for EGR (if a lot of things go their way).
Is this anytime soon? No, but its a reason why a MC of modestly above $100m isn't excessive. Doubt about strategy execution is of course warranted.
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