You read too much into my comment about checking the data against management's claims. Any CEO who doesn't present results and future prospects with inflated optimism, and play-down or sweep under the carpet poor results, will be shortly unemployed. The relentless and competitive demands for capital while minimising dilution demands it be so. Needy shareholders holding out for hope requires it. If every explorer-developer does it, then 'just optimistic' isn't enough to compete for attention when others are being outrageously optimistic. Ends up in a race to the bottom of credibility, where the end justifies the means, and over time management stop even feeling cognitive dissonance over how they play the game.... like politicians really.
Investor's job is to look through the positive spin at what the data is really telling us imo. That's why the ASX has such strong rules about what can be said and what data needs to be released for investor to be able to judge themselves. Conversely, not releasing expected results and any discussion around them speaks volumes... does management really have to spell out they were not good and thus not worth releasing? Although all boards operate across a spectrum between some BS to complete BS in my experience, what's most important is whether they truly believe themselves the project is a winner. I have no doubt NWC management believe Antler is a valuable asset that will become a mine.
Belief in the destination and getting there with shareholder value intact are two different things. Management does their best to hold the share price up precisely to minimise dilution and maximise shareholder value at the end. Trouble is, between disappointing information leaking out and the market's well substantiated cynical view of un-ending CR's, management can't help being dragged down over time by these realities outside their control. Some shareholders can sell and come back later, buy the dumps and sell the pumps, but the stock is stuck in a Lassonde Curve vicious cycle without exploration upside (see Antler Nth targets) or a takeover.
You know this already which is why you asked specific questions about dilution. So does the market, which is why shares are so cheap, and worried they will only become cheaper over time. Unfortunately, nobody can tell you when cheap is too cheap, the price won't go lower or whether an exploration discovery will be made or M&A happen. That's the gamble right. Don't buy too early into a developer falling sword is the rule of thumb, which is why recent news of substantial delays knocked the price south again (+/- poor drill results or poorly received SS update). FWIW, I bought a few more yesterday because at current AUD=65c, NWC has a MC of US$40M net of cash looks cheap in the USA, unless Antler fundamentals turn out worse than even my conservative eye. Nevada is a great mining jurisdiction, labour and industrial costs 1/3 cheaper than WA minimum, although current high USD mitigates that advantage atm somewhat (though will become a major strength LT imho).
Shares can always get cheaper, that's the iron law of markets. If you are waiting for a sure bet, explorer-developers are probably the wrong place to be looking...
GLTAH
NWC Price at posting:
3.4¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
