@oldgold64 .... Who are the most dangerous posters to people's wealth?? IMHO it's those that are perennially bullish no matter what the results... Here is something from one of your posts on 11/7/24 .....
"
PAY NO ATTENTION TO THE FUD BRIGADE, share price will keep building for the next few months"
The SP at the time was 84c, and I held then, just under 100k shares, waiting hopefully, for the next set of results, that came out on the 16th and were disappointing, proving that Green was not a large continuous blanket of high grade Niobium. I sold on the open because of poor results!!
What was your 'advice' to people on the 16th July as the SP was falling; 72c, when you posted the following.... "
Any one panic selling will regret it,"
The SP fell to below 50c over the next 3-4 weeks. I bought back in around 45c, hopeful that the Crean dyke would be extended, and perhaps Green extended further to the East. Alas Crean was disappointing and Green had a few more patches, but limited extent.
I sold on the opening again based on poorer results than hoped and IMHO expected by the market.
None of my selling was based on anything other than poor results. It was no-one's fault, the extended mineralisation that everyone hoped for just wasn't there.
In fact I consider management here are doing a really great job and I like their style of approaching the exploration potential of this area. I wish most most managements of junior explorers would follow their example!!
I do hope to buy back in again, either when the price is relatively cheap for what they have, or there is a major discovery, but for me a company with an Mcap of $160M without any (mineable) MRE to back up the valuation.
My initial MRE for both Emily and Crean is a generous 5M tonnes at around 2% mineralisation, with (a few more) for Green, but Green is so patchy I'd have to do some very 'defined' maps to work it out.
Unlike iron ore that others say, Niobium is a processing intense operation, so there would be considerable capital cost to set up any plant, and transporting 2% or 10-15km to a central plant gets very expensive in a remote location. It's possible, but expensive.
Setting up a 300k T/a plant with various processes, while there is a large, high grade operation next door would be marginal at best, and have to make assumptions that next door didn't effect world price. It's the combination of the lot that makes the market think it's not going to happen, hence the SP dropping after the last 3 announcements showing only limited higher grade mineralistion.
The real value with the Niobium is if ENR find enough to be taken seriously by WA1, as in a threat because of massive quantities of high grade mineralisation, so that the 2 had to come to some type of deal to set up one larger plant in co-operation..
At present IMHO ENR have nowhere near the quantity of mineralisation to be a threat, likely less than 20% of the high grade material at Luni, before they upgrade their MRE.
Small marginal projects, that look good on paper with a feasibility study are a dime a dozen on the ASX, and mostly end up diluting shareholders massively over years as they look for funding. I don't think anyone here wants that...
IMHO it's far more likely that management will flog the Niobium 'potential' to WA1 (for an issue of shares) so they can go on exploring for elephants of copper/gold/ niobium/REE/whatever, elsewhere.
It becomes a matter of price as WA1 don't need more mineralisation, but more, would look better for the long term. Also IMHO, I would not be surprised if they already have had some rudimentary discussions about this!!
(20min delay)