Build your own model. A very crude example may be to say if they compounded revenue quarterly at 20%, Pointerra would be doing $1.5bn in revenue in 10 years. 10% compounded quarterly for 10 years is only $50m. 15% gets to $280m. It's up to you to argue what's realistic.
Note I am not saying this is what I am basing my valuation on. I actually don't have a valuation at all. What I'm looking at is a company with unique SaaS that is highly scalable and gaining sales traction into a market no one can realistically estimate the size of.
$300-400m EV seems nuts against its revenue today but in the grand scheme of things, thinking 5 years out, $300-400m in the global context is absolutely peanuts. It may very well go to a $1bn or more, or maybe they hit a wall and it shrinks back to a $50m valuation. It is highly speculative and no one can give you a definitive answer on valuation.
Note it does not talk about Pointerra at all. But I had always been of the view that a $1bn business (I also hold Nearmap) is pretty big. And it is by ASX standards. But for a company that can truly serve global markets, with software margins, it's still relatively small in the global picture. That's what I took away from that podcast, and I think is relevant to 3DP.
Disclaimer: I bought in at an average of 5.2c and expected this thing to either go big or go to zero. Genuinely. Held it through the March crisis. Friends keep asking if they should buy in at current prices and I honestly can't say. Rationally it's probably safer to reconsider after the next 4C (due by 31 October) or ACV update, i.e. when there is more concrete data. The recent momentum is basically all off Bevan's investment and the last 4C which is now almost 3 months old.
3DP Price at posting:
47.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
