ACV requires ~11 months before it is fully realised in trailing twelve months cash receipts.
The dotted forecast line is a copy of the ACV (in AU$) line moved 11 months into the future.
The dotted forecast line has been able to predict future trailing twelve months cash receipts.
Looking at the graph, you can see how closely the blue line has followed the black dotted line.
This shows ACV (in AU$) forecasts trailing 12 months cash receipts (in AU$) by ~11 months.
Look at the above graph. Pointerra experienced a major growth inflection point in July 2020!
ACV growth went from growing at ~US$0.3M per quarter to ~US$1.7M per quarter.
A year before July 2020, ACV grew at a linear rate of around US$0.3M per quarter.
(April 2020 ACV US$2.16M - April 2019 ACV US$0.93M) / 4 = 1.23 / 4 = US$0.3M
A year after July 2020, ACV grew at a linear rate of around US$1.7M per quarter.
(July 2021 ACV US$9.80M - July 2020 ACV US$2.87M) / 4 = 6.93 / 4 = US$1.7M
Taking the above step change into consideration. I put together a graph of July 2020 onwards.
The above graph assumes Pointerra continues to grow and scale at its current (and somewhat reliably linear over the past 12 months) steady state 12 months into the future. This is to say that, ACV continues to grow in a linear fashion and operational costs continue to scale linearly (as they have appear to have done over the past year). We should continue to see the blue trailing twelve months cash receipts line follow the dotted black forecast trailing twelve months cash receipts line (just as it did in the first graph in this post).
Assuming everything holds constant and linear, then operational cash flows should be roughly close to AU$7M for the year ending June 2022 (see the difference between the black dotted forecast trailing twelve months cash receipts line and the red trendline for the trailing twelve months cash spent on operating activities).
Keep in mind that this linear "steady state" obviously does not account for the next potential major growth inflection point. I'd probably call this the safe/bearish scenario (it doesn't factor in any future growth that surprises to the upside) and it still looks pretty darn good to me.
AU$7M operating cash flow comes close to RaaS's (
https://www.raasgroup.com/) forecast:
https://www.raasgroup.com/download/ASX:3DP/Pointerra/RaaS/Update/2021/07/29/?wpdmdl=4098Honestly, that target of US$50M in ACV by H1FY25 looks quite easy for Pointerra to achieve:
https://www.raasgroup.com/download/ASX:3DP/Pointerra/RaaS/Update/2021/07/29/?wpdmdl=4098Upside $1.81/share!? I'm happy for Pointerra management to achieve US$50M in ACV earlier.
