Some will remember, in the lead up to the Annual Results in August 2021, the many attempts to get a read on future results and some correlation between the declared ACV versus the quarterly or 6 monthly Revenue and Customer Receipts. My last attempt was via a bottom up approach using the Actuals posted for H1 FY21 and then building out H2 based on announcements, assumptions etc. Again, failed as any sort of a reliable indicator. Decided to work only with FACT going forward !!
With the FY21 results in hand, decided we have sufficient data points (Actuals) to start a trajectory analysis, where essentially, the picture based on Actuals shows the forming of trajectories as well as the relationships between metrics. The above coverage and selection of metrics being compared is a hybrid of what normally flows out of an income statement, a balance sheet and /or a 4C. My personal selection, to serve as a monitor of the health of the Business. 3 primary Sets of Trajectories in support of Growth and 3 primary Sets of Trajectories in support of Profit.
Some Comments relating to the above :-
* ACV adjusted to 6 months equivalent, as declared at the end of each financial reporting period. Gap becomes a given and we monitor the Delta between the two trajectories. Looking for a near CONSTANT over time in terms of this delta.
* R&D Expenses , Rebates and Grants removed from all metrics, so as to avoid any skewering of numbers. Also, work on the premise, Company will only invest in R&D if there is a future return.
* Look to the unusual combinations of Customer Receipts plus Receivables (provides a complete picture of its own) and then Sales Revenue plus Deferred Revenue (again, a complete picture of its own).
The graph titled 'Inflection point' will over time show the pathway to profitability. I believe that the Company have been and will continue to be fairly measured in this regard. Quite possible we see multi inflection points for a while to come.
The graph on Sales Revenue per Full Time Employee provides a useful check on the cost of scaling. Pointerra's operating expenses are dominated by Expenses relating to Employees. Nice yardstick to keep an eye on.
Finally, I have updated the above with the latest ACV number (again 6 Month equivalent in AUD, calculated at ER 0.71) and the Customer Receipts for H1 FY22 (ex the latest 4C). Now await the HY Financials by end Feb to complete the update.
In closing, understandable that many would have questions on the recent share price performance. Some are selling, some are patiently holding. My conviction stems from the above. Believe we can look forward to particularly strong results over the next 12 to 18 months. Simply look at the trajectories above. That apparent disconnect with the ACV number is not that great. Just a function of time.
Happy to share this and hopefully some find it useful. As always, compliment with your own research.
Rokewa
3DP Price at posting:
35.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
