IMO despite all the rather positive commentary from mgmt, the market is discounting this stock because the cashflow is so far off the ACV numbers reported.
The below shows announced ACV (in USD) which Cash receipts (in AUD) and something just does not lign up:
- trailing 12 mths receipts in the latest quarter was ~AUD10m and this was announced as ACV in Jan-Apr21...so a full 18+ mths ago if you convert the ACV into AUD
- the ACV growth is ~USD 2m each quarter for the last 8-9 quarters (excl Apr21), but the cash receipts are well short of that growth
=> the definition of ACV seems to be quite divorced from the cashflow reality and I can only think that they pick up a number for ACV purposes as soon at they have a commitment, bu t it takes over a year to generate any cashflow from that deal......this is inconsistent with their own definition of ACV
Look if they hit 20-30m in revenues all good, but at the current pace, it seems ~6 quarter away at best (should nothing else change)
|
| ACV (USD) | Growth |
|
| Cash Receipts (AUD) | TTM | Growth |
|---|
| 1 | 31Oct19 | 1,660 |
|
| 1Q2020 | 306 |
|
|
|---|
| 2 | 31Jan20 | 1,900 | 240 |
| 2Q2020 | 185 |
|
|
|---|
| 3 | 30Apr20 | 2,160 | 260 |
| 3Q2020 | 532 |
|
|
|---|
| 4 | 30Jul20 | 2,870 | 710 |
| 4Q2020 | 820 | 1,843 |
|
|---|
| 5 | 30Sep20 | 4,930 | 2,060 |
| 1Q2021 | 609 | 2,146 | 303 |
|---|
| 6 | 31Jan21 | 6,880 | 1,950 |
| 2Q2021 | 635 | 2,596 | 450 |
|---|
| 7 | 30Apr21 | 7,890 | 1,010 |
| 3Q2021 | 1,374 | 3,438 | 842 |
|---|
| 8 | 31Jul21 | 9,800 | 1,910 |
| 4Q2021 | 1,453 | 4,071 | 633 |
|---|
| 9 | 29Oct21 | 11,700 | 1,900 |
| 1Q2022 | 983 | 4,445 | 374 |
|---|
| 10 | 31Jan22 | 14,400 | 2,700 |
| 2Q2022 | 2,849 | 6,659 | 2,214 |
|---|
| 11 | 29Apr22 | 16,300 | 1,900 |
| 3Q2022 | 2,360 | 7,645 | 986 |
|---|
| 12 | 29Jul22 | 18,200 | 1,900 |
| 4Q2022 | 1,661 | 7,853 | 208 |
|---|
| 13 | 29Jul22 | 20,130 | 1,930 |
| 1Q2023 | 3,411 | 10,281 | 2,428 |
|---|
