My thoughts for anyone interested to pass some time on the weekend...
The last thing any stock forum such as HC needs is an echo chamber for the either the yays or the nays only… its a good part of the society we live, that allows everyone to share their opinion. I listen to both sides of the story in reference to VR1. What lets us all down are the unwarranted personal insults that are way too common here of late. I'm not proud to have been sucked into this behaviour, but for it I offer the following explanation.
I think particularly for those of us with a long-term trading mindset, when you spend as much time & effort researching to give enough confidence in building a significant position (obviously significance being proportionate to everyones own situation), you could be forgiven for seeing your holdings much like a parent to its children. You want them to do well & would fight till the death to give them every opportunity for success. They might take a knock backward, but your still there through the dark days hoping to celebrate the good times when days finally turn light again.
Its for the same reason you see us long-termers (aka the parents) still here holding & supporting, no matter the weather, rightly or wrongly & whether or not you believe it, adding to our ‘families’ with regular top-ups as funds permit as I have done again today. When you are in as deep as some of us here, no question it hurts to hear bad spoken of your babies or see them down, but negativity & questions bring doubt which make you go in search for answers & as a result hopefully regained confidence. Until such a time as that confidence cannot regained, then its time to reconsider. (your holdings, that is, not your children
Its highly unlikely I would’ve thought, but on the possibility that any of my posts on here have caused anyone else share my excitement & take a position here they have since regretted, then sincere apologies from me. My intention in posting has always been to share my findings with other like minded people & bring awareness to what I have always believed a potential life changing company for holders. While there have been some trying times, I truly feel the upcoming 6-9 months are the real make or break for Vection & optimism gained from my ongoing research keeps me here.
That being said, jumping into something on the ASX with the expectation it will only go higher & that of no repercussions if things don’t go to plan is a bit cheeky at best. Blaming others & targeting them following as a result is childish & shows a lack of responsibility for ones own actions in buying in the first place without doing sufficient DD. Decision is yours to wait it out or take a hit, then try to see how you could’ve played it better before moving onto the next shiny thing. Hanging around after the fact to only insult the posters & company which you once believed in is a bit sad really imo. Enough of that.
Now, heres my amateur take where VR1 is at… TA wise
As of this morning, thankfully VR1 no longer has a gap on the daily chart… following another bounce off support at 0.051 that level is looking strong with solid bids ready to soak any sells. Next obstacle as I see it is 0.057, further in time at 0.066/67 which has previously been difficult to get past & coincidentally is approximately where the 200EMA currently is hovering. Negatively there isn’t much volume for any short term traders who recognise these channels, so they are always going to be hesitant taking a large position here. That being said as was commented earlier in the week by another poster, its almost like clockwork some of the patterns / channels for relatively safe entries & exits for short-term traders with smallish parcels who might feel its worth a punt. Come any surprise market welcomed announcements, then increased volume will certainly entice more volatility & interest.
& my summary on where VR1 is at… FA wise
Theres significant concern & debate over the expenses provided in the recent half yearly. It included a 1-off impairment of $3.5 million which added badly to the red. Thankfully being a 1-off, that impairment component will not be repeated in the upcoming quarterlies. Other expenses however are still very much up there relative to the revenue they have resulted in to date, no question.
Time will have the final say in confirming if what management have stated that current higher expenses are a result of an initial growth / building phase & will not be the norm ongoing. The initial cost toward Patents & IP protection are assumedly more a 1 off, so hopefully this also won’t be as much of an obstacle in upcoming quarterlies hence reasoning for reduced expenses in future.
However, lets be real… not unlike real life, continue spend more than you earn you still need to pay the bills somehow. This is where the regular CR suggestion comes into it. I get it.
Management have also reminded us in the half yearly that they are progressing with potential M&A discussions. Being shareholders themselves, they are fully aware the essential need to get the SP as high as possible to reduce the dilutionary effect any CR would bring shall they need take that route. As per discussion here related to previous acquisitions, many will say any more acquisitions are only to buy revenue, but as we’ve seen from both JMC & BC, they have proven targeted & complimentary both in products / services / people gained &
in time have shown foresight well ahead of what the market has seen upon initial announcement release.
Theres no denying, that if in fact pumping the SP was managements intention for a raise then it will not be as simple as it was previously on ‘Metaverse hype’. Some posters on here have made their views known & reflected that of the market in general which has proven very skeptical of the timing of the most recent announcements as nothing more than an effort to counter an underwhelming half yearly. Rather than see them for the potential new opportunities they could well become, the market is obviously hesitant & instead treated them as ‘fluff’ as SP remains pretty much unchanged. I respect the uncertainty, but particularly when it comes to
the most recent Defence announcement (which shall it come to fruition) will result in more than a doubling of our currently predicted annual revenue with as much as another $29 million in the next 6 months, I see hope in what appears a very sticky market with enormous growth potential.
Per the recent update on 8/3/23, there has been $4 million TCV added since that provided on 31/1/23. That is a ~5 week timeframe at an average increase $800,000 per week. If they were able to keep up that same average for the 18 weeks between now & EOF, they would add another $14+ million TCV (on top of the $14 million now) & comfortable exceed the $24-26 million target they have provided to the market. Keep in mind they would not give these targets if they weren’t absolutely confident in reaching them as they are fully aware the market will punish them terribly.
By my calculations, 97% of the revenue is coming from 6 of the 11 sectors Vection is targeting. Those being Defence, Space, Military & Law Enforcement (17%), Media & Communications (14%), AEC & Real Estate (27%), Sports & Betting (10%), Other?(6%), Service Agencies (23%). It is very clear that the remaining 3% from markets targeted is yet to get traction such as Healthcare & Automotive which we all have high hopes for. That being said, growing client base & recurring orders all add up & in time no matter where they come from. It also shows Vections resilience & adaptability to pretty much any industry in the world at a time when cost saving is fundamental to business success no matter location or market. What other company can offer this same opportunity?
I will be honest,
I’m beyond excited with the mention in the half yearly of the potential incorporation of AI, additional XR & ChatGPT like solutions & 3D avatars as a result of integration or M&A activity which has pretty much gone unnoticed on here. Those in addition to the ongoing promotion by Accenture & Cisco & hopefully some news on Mindesk / Autodesk all of which are the recurring revenue, minimal expense potential monsters that most of us believers see as company makers individually or combined set us apart from most any other ASX listed babies.
Admittedly, on the nay side, theres a particular board member with a cult following of hatred that cannot be escaped so long as he is there. In addition, we have the inevitable tax-loss selling season soon upcoming which is generally in-escapable for any & all speculative stocks.
So yeah, in summary, there’s both some significant hurdles & huge opportunities ahead which can be argued by both sides. Its time only that will confirm who is right or if it’s a combination of both. Some traders see safety in waiting till the future is crystal clear & as a result accept they will need pay up for the priviledge. Others like myself see opportunity in the risk of getting in early & holding & adding through ups & downs & the inevitable waiting. Others were never intending commit & just are here for the show or something I cant get my head around. Best of luck whichever you are here for. Happy weekend all.
