Below is my opinion only.
I have a huge problem with this TCV metric.
This announcement gives the distinct impression to a new investor that some sales metric increased 50% in about 7 weeks.
Sounds amazing, right?
A phenomenal annulalised growth rate, right?
For anyone new to the share register, they will likely get naively carried away, not realising that TCV is a cumulative metric which completely changes the picture. Also, Vection don’t even stick to their own definition of TCV properly.
Let me explain.
Below is their own definition from this very announcement
“The Total Contract Value is a metric that combines all contracts, including subscription and maintenance packages, that the Company expects to deliver during the current fiscal year, subject to audit review…”
The key phrase I want to bring out here is "current fiscal year" (FY)
If the definition says its for the whole FY, why are we getting TCV updates up to the current date only? Their own definition says it's for the whole FY!!.
Should we not get TCV updates which relate to the entire FY every time?
Why do they exclude the forward looking months for TCV??
This all look especially confusing when Revenue Guidance has already been given and does not change!!
According to the Vection Investor Presentation on 24/03/2021 it states that 82% of TCV was converted to Revenue. This sort of means that TCV is a hybrid metric mix of sales pipeline and revenue.
Based on the 82% conversion rate stated in the 24/03/2021 announcement we should be told, right now, that current TCV for the FY is about 30.5M (30.5M x .82 = abt 25M (Revenue Guidance Midpoint)).
The way Vection report the TCV only to the FY to date however, provides management with regular opportunities to pump a sexy announcement every few weeks. All the while, revenue guidance not changing.
I contend that if revenue guidance is given, and not changing, then these TCV updates are wholly and completely irrelevant and useless.
So what I think will happen all the way to 30 June, is that Vection will keep on regularly announcing new TCV to date figures getting the TCV up to around 30M.
This then gives them the infrastructure to keep pumping the positivity when nothing meaningful is changing.
Vection management should completely drop the TCV metric thing altogether, or stick to it's own proper definition and report the TCV for the entire FY like Revenue.
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Below is my opinion only.I have a huge problem with this TCV...
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