Thanks MoneymanMaz. I'd read the quarterly a number of times before I learnt the stages of the EPA over the weekend & saw Arions YouTube link.
I found this table in my archive that someone posted awhile back. I've updated it with each stage including an additional 2-4 weeks grace period each as we're dealing with bureaucratic red tape and Cinnabon's ignorance.
This might answer Carna's post about when we see production starting - I'd punt a mid-late 2025 based on this table. Once ASN is up and running I think a 200m MC would be conservative and doesn't account for Muchea or ASC. So we'd be looking at ~5x bags in 1.5 years at current prices.
It would be difficult to say how much investors would price in Muchea, as it COULD still be 3-4 years away if the EPA decide to assess due to varying vegetation and it's proximity Perth.
I'd hope that the high grade Silica sand being listed as a critical minerals list for the shift to renewables and (hopeful) success of VDT at ASN will help + the proposed overhaul of review process - but who knows.
Keep in mind this table doesn't account for the possibility of EPA sending us back to the Rts stage again to make themselves feel important. We'd be reamed if this happened. I've also assumed DAWE(now DAFF) have been included throughout the EPA and don't have to review once ministerial sign off provided.
RE: Financials - Recent quarter spend was ~900k total, after this raise there'll be ~3.6m in the coffers. This will take us 3 quarters to the end of year including the current. If it goes smoothly, we could see EPA approval and offtakes before the next CR is required. Cinnabon's "offtakes before Christmas" may finally hold some weight this year.
Having done a deep dive on VRX over the weekend - I still see the huge potential value in VRX at current prices particularly with Delphi on board, but this comes with prominent risk. Investors need beware that these are very real risks that include insolvency as had occurred in Bruce's last Tiwi island project.
IMO & DYOR of course
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