@carnabombers Agree management don't have experience in producing. However, other than management's salaries - quarterly spend is somewhat reasonable and I would prefer they didn't hire such personnel until EPA approval. All they can do is work with Preston Consulting who've been preparing their EPA documents. I share the shareholders frustrations. But let's be honest - the majority aren't voting against the remuneration or strikes !
1. Timeline above accounts for some blow outs but yes we could get reamed and sent back to Rts.
2. & 3. Share price will hopefully be in a better place once EPA is back. CAPEX remains relatively low even with 20% increase compared to project value and mine life. Finance will be easier to secure once we have binding off-takes, that once again will likely only come once EPA approval is received.
4. I've accounted for 9-months of financing and mine build total... Once EPA and binding offtakes are in, we'll be in for another cap raise for certain based on the timeline above for OPEX - let's just hope it comes after EPA and offtakes.
5. & 6. RE: Financing - your guess is as good as mine Carna! I'm sure there are options for forward paid offtakes, non-recourse government loans via NAIF or EFA. Looking at other exploratory companies in the Rare Earth (Critical Minerals) Space - none of these loans could be discussed until after EPA. We won't know the backend preliminary discussions, because until it's confirmed - it could be considered immaterial (to VRX at least, or they simply not communicate it until the Yearly or Quarterly reports).
Agree risk is there. It may not be the highest return & there are definitely opportunity costs - but nothing is guaranteed & for some shareholders it may not make sense to realise the loss just to gamble into another stock that could go further down. The way I see it (shareholder bias for sure) is that this EPA saga is likely to be concluded in the next 12-months.
This is based on my review of other critical mineral projects that have way more impacts on the environment (i.e. Rare Earths) but also received EPA approval around the 2.5-3 year mark.
VRX and the Preston had clearly (wrongly) taken a "it'll be right" approach to the VDT method using Iluka's trial data at Eneabba, ignorantly thinking it would warrant a "no EPA assessment needed pls build mine thnx". I think the nail in the coffin has been VRX's commitment to VDT instead of promise to simply rehabilitate the vegetation and flora to previously surveyed levels. VRX have now committed to this VDT method and EPA are asking more questions and seemingly requiring trials and data. Only time will tell if they allow this to run parallel to production.
I've followed VUL as well and it's down to $~4.40 from highs of ~$16 in 2021. Who's to say whichever next stock pick doesn't do the same..
Thanks though Stan! Just trying to balance the shareholder frustration with some positivity.
Will admit VRX has been a dog to own though - ETF investing looking real tasty lately.
All IMO and DYOR
