Sure you can safely sit here for a couple of years now and see what happens but there will be a price that it's not worth the risk anymore - for everyone that is different and often depends on personal circumstances (tax bills, employment, overall exposure etc)
Under the most extreme bullish scenario they have the potential to pull the proverbial rabbit out of the hat and be worth a billion+ but the probability of that is extremely small. The more acceptable scenario is that they get gobbled up by Northen hemisphere pharma who have underinvested in the next generation of developments as highlighted by the post recently on Roche/GeneWeave. It will still take a year or 2 to get to proving PYCs worth but the potential outcome is possible within the cash runway and most likely worth a few hundred million. THere have always been stories of interested parties circling PYC over the years and always a reason why it never came off from what I understand. I have had it first hand from an exemployee of one of the largest pharma who was given the task in about 2007/8 of 'running the ruler' over PYC for acquisition - the GFC made them put all acquisitions on hold and the rest is history - they spent the next 5 years merging and acquiring each other and cost cutting/rationalising and seeking ST profits. The AUD hit more than USD$1 and everything in Oz became expensive so dust gathered for years and local bio's went on life support. About 2-3 years ago that started to change locally with the spec mining $$ shifting focus to the bio industry and seeding a mini boom. We just spent a year pulling back from that and now (hopefully) are in the more mature leg where serious capital is raised and sustainable devlopment occurs (take a look at the amounts many bio's have raised - unheard of only 5 years ago) and the weakness of the AUD and progress that has been achieved (and accelerated more recently with fresh capital) puts them all back on the radar - old files get dusted off and pipelines of technology rebuilt by big pharma. Now we might be old tech but from what I have seen (and spoke to more knowledgeable people than I) thi is not the case - in fact we seem to be more edgy than ever before in what we are trying to achieve - and a little more commercially focussed as well.
Time will tell but for now I think it is seriously cheap up to 1.5c and good value up to 2c ($40m MCAP and $10m in the bank) between 2-5c is no mans land - easy to justify if a couple of half decent announcements (only values it at MCAP 100m with a very tight register) and then depending on how meaningful those announcements are 5-10c is possible. People who have long got bored reading the crap I write know I don't think the ASX spec market can sustain MCAPs beyond 200-300m for long so 10-15c would require something out of the box - a multi year pharma partnerhip fully funded or material equity stake etc
In the meantime my attention strays elsewhere for a while in the knowledge that the PYC team can focus on the science/tech solidly for a while rather than worrying about cash flow. First time in PYC's life they have had this sort of runway - time to use it.
PYC Price at posting:
1.2¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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