What has been delivered is 3 projects to a reasonably advanced...

What has been delivered is 3 projects to a reasonably advanced pre-FID stage whereby they have issued feasibility studies pointing to acceptable project metrics. One of those projects has managed to navigate the Canadian permitting nightmare to be on a mining lease. This puts Seymour in a highly exclusive group of companies in the North America's that have a mining lease for their lithium project.

Those projects have been delivered on a metal showing 15-25 percent annual growth rates with futures curves indicating a 50% price increase in the next couple of years. The problem is so many investors have been burnt in the existing decline. Some have averaged down in their respective stocks and been burnt by doing this. There's now a trickle that are just deciding to quit at what-ever price they can get. The difficultly is finding buyers is difficult for even this typically low volume of sale orders. Those looking to buy lithium stocks are frequently prepared to wait on the buy side rather than chase the sell side orders. If the lithium price were not bumbling along at prices where many operations are break-even at best, the GT1 share price would probably be many times what it is now.

This situation is not sustainable because on the aggressive demand forecasts (like CATL's in the recent LTR presentation), there needs to be a FID for the construction of an operation/expansion the size of PLS's Pilgangoora site approximately every 4 months, Even if you pair back your demand growth estimate, most have 2030 production requiring a replication of every single in production asset from 2024. Anything less than that has demand exceeding supply in the future when these non-started projects would have come online. The frequency of FID's is nowhere near that volume so there is a looming supply deficit. The market appears to be saying, nah, supply increased to meet demand and it will again. This is forgetting that the supply that is now meeting demand was due to many projects FID's several years ago when prices were much, much higher.

The market however at this point in time is fully supplied and prices are low. On the supply-demand dynamics that are being setup, prices will need to increase not to the level where more hard rock and brine projects are profitable but to the point where supply solutions that don't have a 2-year lead time can add supply (DSO and low-grade Chinese lepidolite). This could take prices back to US$2,500-US$3,000/t and if there isn't enough supply at that price point, demand is going to need to be throttled back by high price. Whether that takes prices to US$4,000/t, $5,000/t or even retesting US$8,000/t is unclear. None of this possibility is being reflected in current prices. If it were, prices would be much higher. So if this view is correct, its a waiting game for market sentiment to change and when it does it could be an abrupt upwards shift. That's however no consolation when looking at an all-time low share price and a return that depending on purchase points could be a >90% loss.