I'm well aware of the difference between buying on market and contributing to a capital raise. I appreciate that by choosing to not participate in the capital raise, I run the risk of the company not being able to continue as a going concern.
But from my perspective, the question I have to ask myself is: given how much I have already invested in the company, do I feel that I am justified in investing more? Do I feel that that investment will - or is reasonably likely to - lead to a decent capital return? Or do I feel that it might be closer to throwing good money after bad? Because whether I buy on market or contribute to the capital raise, I am still investing more money. If I sell down and use the proceeds to contribute to the capital raising, I end up with a smaller stake overall than I currently have, plus some realised capital losses.
Right now, given my financial state and the other things going on, I feel that I'm possibly overinvested in Redflow, and I'm certainly not in a position to put more money in. That's my situation, especially after fully participating in the SPP last year. Others are in a different position, and/or have a different evaluation of the risks and benefits. And that's legitimate; I'm not going to say that anybody is wrong for going in for the CR, as long as they've done their own evaluation of the position, the risks, and the benefits.
The short of it is, I look at this capital raise, and for me, it feels too much like "more of the same". Raising capital to pay the cost of running the company, rather than raising capital to exclusively fund the company's growth. There's just too much uncertainty for me to be comfortable with tossing in more. It doesn't feel like the company has adequately explained the pathway from where they are to profitability, or even to break even; and for all that I realise that my stance may end up becoming a self fulfilling prophecy, I'm not convinced that further investment is right for me.
As I said: others may take different views. I'm not going to say that their views are wrong. Only that I think those views would be wrong for me. Go in, by all means; just go in with your eyes open.
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