@ozgoldtraderits not to confuse. Its an interesting maths issue, and a hedge on the cash runway.
If they pull everything together then there is a good bet on ops, evident on math.
I just cant work out, if it was a mates deal, or if.they were desperate at 1c ?
So there are two doors. And given the risk on door B, its safer for mine to bet on the heads, and the flood event of 1b overhanging options that some may (bet) go through for 0.1c, which makes an easy profit trade at 0.2c.
You can bet on different things. But you have to contemplate the different scenarios, the risk and reward.
- My heads bet is that they eventuate a sale or commercial JV, or that buoyancy and FDA see us over 1.5-2c. But as you even acknowledge, the risk that a sale is at 3c or less wipes out the options. In that case, a head at 1c, is more attractive.
- The flood event from an overhang of 1b options. Not all will flush through. But it is a significant quantum to deal with, and when there is risk on global markets etc, you still have those who will want to redeem for break even when the wobbles kick in, now and then. Depends on timing re-flood at 0.1c. Delay, and precipitation more likely as heads could soften. Alternatively, good news kicker could make the play abandoned, if the heads put on some meat on their bones to say 1.5c.
- the cash runway and delays which lead to further CR that takes the wind out of sp projections. And you need that projection well above 3c to make the long holder options betting viable. Short term is a different scenario as it captures the "potential" of the leverage advantage.
(20min delay)