I think many posters are over-complicating things.Here are some...

I think many posters are over-complicating things.

Here are some points:

RSG owns 19.99% of shares and 100% of CN.

The CN's are debt and they have no more control than any ordinary major shareholder with 19.99% stake.

They are owned $85 mil and should NMG fail to pay the installments and principal in 3 years time they will pull the plug and own 100% of Bibiani and other NMG assets. In this case, us the shareholders will get nothing (incidentally RSG would also lose money that they paid for their 19.9% stake but in a grand scheme of things it is no biggy)

However, if NMG gets their affairs in order and sorts the plant out and so on, then things may indeed become a lot more positive from here.

So, points made in posts that I disagree with:

1) RSG doesn't have any major means of manipulating the SP. The SP will depend on the operational performance, plant, cash cost, etc. And of course buyers vs sellers. Given the number of majority shareholders, there will be relatively little liquidity.

2) There is absolutely no indication (given consistent lack of detail in NMG reports regarding the operational matters) whether 85 mil or whatever is left will be enough or not to become cash positive and by how much. It is just guesses unless you have insider info which I do not have. I am hoping for a proper update withing a month from the new management.

3) (Disclaimer - on this point I am not too sure since I couldn't be bothered re-reading the legal stuff in the deal) RSG cannot really force a cap raise at a given price or in any other way. They do not have any priority in underwriting it. They cannot prevent another company or entity taking a stake. They will have a seat on the board but that is about it and of course they control 20% of the vote.

4) Following the logic of some posts, if RSG wanted to get NMG for 85 mil + 19.99 stake (which is what they already have paid) it would be in their interest to run the operation down and then move in as creditors. This sound just plain stupid and a conspiracy theory-like. The possibility of them taking over has nothing to do with SP. Furthermore, I would rather believe RSG's story regarding wanting to see the operation strengthen as it makes more sense.

Personally, given the balance of probabilities I have taken a smallish stake (traded NMG profitably in the past - do not laugh). Possibly will regret it but it could be an opportunity.