cetra
You ask: "Is anyone actually going to take up this offer?". Of course, that's a fair question and the following are my considerations, that I will take into account when making my decision by 24 May:
1) If the SP remains below, or at, or even a point above the offer price, I won't be participating in the capital raising.
2) If the SP was to increase several points to, or a little beyond 2.2 cents, with any reasonable support, I would probably take up a minority of my entitlement.
3) If the SP was to increase a few points beyond 2.2 cents, with any reasonable support, I would probably take up a majority of my entitlement.
Now, I will concede that the prospects for scenario 3 above look quite implausible and I would be astonished if that came to pass in the next 19 days.
I will also concede that the prospects for scenario 1 above look very probable, but if it does come to pass, I think there are other reasons why the capital raise might still succeed (more on that later).
So that leaves scenario 2 above - the prospects for which do seem a bit unlikely to materialise by 24 May. However, at this stage I am not prepared to count the scenario out for these reasons:
- Bits and pieces in several recent ASX releases from Spectur have indicated that there are a number of large (mostly material) opportunities which are expected to soon convert from the sales pipeline into contracts. Of course, the company has been saying that for a while, but I would expect that the timing of the capital raise would have been calibrated to coincide with management's best estimate of when some of the larger opportunities might convert.
- The company has said that all of the more than $12 million worth of opportunities in the sales pipeline have a potential contract value of greater than $500,000 each. So, if some of those opportunities were to convert in the capital raise period, it may paint a somewhat different complexion for trading sentiment and the share price.
Turning now to why the capital raise might succeed (from management's perspective) even if scenario 1 above pans out, I would be unsurprised if there were some "johnny come lately" investors with a decent cash wad who may see the capital raise as a means of establishing what in historical terms could be considered a sizeable and cheap position in the company by hoovering up any capital raise shortfall. Here, I'm talking about a potential shortfall of many millions of shares which could not otherwise be accumulated in such amounts on market at 2 cents per share. Of course that won't bring particular joy to longer term investors like myself but I can't discount the possibility that that may pan out.
zeno9
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Ann: Entitlement Offer to Fund Growth, page-21
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Last
1.8¢ |
Change
0.001(5.88%) |
Mkt cap ! $5.233M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
1.8¢ | 1.8¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.8K | 100K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 47058 | 1.8¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
1.9¢ | 162000 | 1 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 47058 | 0.018 |
1 | 113842 | 0.017 |
4 | 1222190 | 0.016 |
1 | 20000 | 0.013 |
1 | 50000 | 0.010 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.019 | 162000 | 1 |
0.021 | 203398 | 1 |
0.022 | 109551 | 1 |
0.023 | 700000 | 1 |
0.024 | 41700 | 1 |
Last trade - 10.08am 12/09/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
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