I've been lurking in the background for a while, however, I feel obliged to re-emerge from the shadows. Reading over the recent commentary on this thread, I feel there is something of significance that so far has been overlooked here.
What this pertains to is the discussion around the two announcements over the last week: the third quarter update as well as the subsequent (and I think, likely related) capital raising.
The discussion over the causes of the sales downtick the have produced much noise on this thread, but I don't think any of the commentary here so far related to that particular topic has been quite on the mark.
Interestingly, despite the quantum of posters that this forum seems to attract each week, one relevant article discussing this company that appeared on a mainstream industry website last month seems to have been entirely overlooked.
This is rather unfortunate, because the writer of this piece seems to have astutely predicted Vmoto's current woes, some weeks before they were revealed in the recent quarterly update.
The article, which was published on the 17th of September, was by a Colombian writer, Juan Diego Celemin Mojica, who focuses on developments in the EV world in Latin America.
The first half of the article reviews the aforementioned motorcycle, but naturally I'll focus mostly on his concluding narrative focused on the company, which is of direct relevance to this thread.
His review of the bike is generally favourable, with one line from the writer '...The bike is totally worth its cost, and then a bit more...' more or less capturing his sentiment, though he does note a couple glitches with the bike towards the end of the article. But let's turn our attention to the more interesting conclusion of the piece, which is titled: '...Vmoto's mistake and the future of Super Soco'
...The Super Soco TC-1900 is a good looking, affordable, and reliable e-bike that can give its gasoline counterparts a run for their money.
It also seems it will be phased out soon.
Vmoto ceased production on the affordable TS-1200 and it seems will pull the plug on the TC-1900, instead replacing the model with the gorgeous, larger, and more powerful TS Street Hunter and TC Wanderer. However, in doing so, it destroyed the niche where it had succeeded (at least in the Colombian market): affordable yet striking and well designed electric bikes.
The TS Street Hunter nearly triples the cost of the old TS-1200, and the TC Wanderer nearly doubles that of the TC-1900. At $16,000,000 COP ($4,000), they no longer compete with affordable 125cc and 150cc urban gasoline bikes, instead going head-on against much more powerful and better designed 200cc to 350cc bikes, as well as more capable Chinese sport e-bikes.
This is a fight they’re bound to lose.
Super Soco’s TS and TC lineup went from selling a couple hundred units a year in 2021 to only 40 units so far in 2023… but 35 of them are the remaining TC-1900, so the real sales number is only 5! For now, they remain as a viable brand thanks to their scooters, a lineup which is still affordable(ish).
The TC-1900 has disappeared from both the Colombian webpage and Vmoto’s official site, so it may not be sold for much longer. Once that happens, we may see a 95% or so market share reduction for Vmoto in this segment.
Looks were one of the main reasons we chose the TC-1900, and it’s a shame this won’t be an option for those choosing an e-bike in the future. If you ask me, replacing the TS-1200 and the TC-1900 for more expensive alternatives makes no sense in developing markets, and will hurt Vmoto’s sales numbers for the foreseeable future unless they increase power and range and make their motorcycles compatible with Type 2 fast charging (so that they can truly compete against those 200cc to 350cc gasoline motorcycles).
Regardless, we’re happy to have purchased one while they existed, and we feel the TC-1900 has clearly offered quite the value for its low cost, and then some more. E-bikes are a real alternative for those who either don’t want or can’t afford an electric car but still wish to join in on the transition to cleaner, greener transportation. Oh, and prices for this model have indeed climbed up (20% or so for the used ones), but now I don’t know if it’s because gasoline prices are up or because the model has been discontinued and people are scrambling to buy whatever’s left on the market (or a bit of both).
I would like to read your comments on my assessment of Vmoto’s decision. Am I being too harsh? Or is this, in fact, the end for the brand in most developing markets (at least in this segment)? Could this be offset by better sales in more developed countries?...
I think that our Colombian writer may have hit the nail on the head.
The company has made a decision to phase out their basic 'vanilla' models, presumably to temp buyers to 'level up' to the 'plus' versions of these bikes, such as the TS Street Hunter and the TC Wanderer.
The problem is that the 'next level' models come with a larger price tag.The Super Soco bikes, particularly the TC, managed to carve out their own little niche in the two-wheel EV market.
They weren't the most powerful bikes, other electric motorcycles, such as the Livewire models and Zero, leave Super Soco bikes in the dust. And while they weren't expensive, they also weren't the cheapest bikes on the market: there were other brands from China that were more affordable.
However, the Super Soco bikes were widely reputed for being 'the best value for money' in the electric motorcycle space. That was their edge.
Now, it appears that Vmoto Soco are trying to shift 'up-market', by phasing out their classic models. But have they killed the goose that laid the golden egg?
For many in the business world, selling products with premium cachet is the dream. It means fatter margins, more money for less work. What not to like?
The problem is that it is much easier said than done. Occasionally, companies can get lucky, but generally, most premium brands take decades, even generations, to build up a reputation. Take, for instance, LVMH, the most valuable company in Europe, named after the two dominant brands in the conglomerate, Louis Vuitton and Moet Hennessy. These enterprises were established in 1854 and 1765, respectively. The journey to achieving prestige is typically a long and arduous one.
Turning back to Vmoto, the entitlement offer that was announced last week seemed to be very 'out of the blue'. Why initiate a raising only days after the third quarter market update that revealed a significant drop in sales? As has been pointed out in earlier posts, just a month ago, the share price of this company was above 0.200. Why not initiate a raising a month or two ago? It suggest that the management were surprised by the extent in the drop of sales that was revealed in the last quarterly.
I have a bad feeling that the assessment of that Colombian writer in the piece last month is spot on. I don't think the drop in sales is primarily down to the macro-economic situation, as was cited by the company in the recent quarterly update.
When customers are looking to buy a new type of product, they tend to be naturally cautious. In these circumstances, product reviews carry a lot of weight. And the TC model has been well and truly tried and tested. It is a 'low powered' option, certainly, at least compared to what else is available today: and this, I think, is why the company is phasing them out.
But I think this might be missing the point. The people who buy the basic TC model just want a basic, reliable e-motorcycle to get around. They aren't buying them so as to street-race other brands of electric motorcycles.
The decision to phase out the no-frills TC and TS models (especially the former) might be a costly one for Vmoto. I hope this wasn't driven by some lingering animosity towards the legacy Super Soco models on the past of the management, or to some deluded belief that they can 'upscale' the brand.
I should note that it is possible that the management of the company might be putting some plan into place to plug the hole in their sales that appears to have been caused by the phasing out of their basic models. It is plausible that the company might be planning to scale up manufacturing of their more powerful models, such as the Super Soco TC Max, so they are able to cut the price of the TC Max and other more powerful models down the track. That line of argument might make sense in light of the expansion of Vmoto's manufacturing facilities (as per the announcement 'Vmoto acquires industrial land in Nanjing, China, of 02/05/2023).
However, even if this is the case, the expanded manufacturing facility won't be producing until the end of next year, so there is a bit of a wait till then.
I don't think the situation for Vmoto is as bleak as some other recent posters here have suggested here, however, it does seem to me that the management have made a boo-boo, and the company will probably take some time to recover from this.
Finally, before I wind up, I thought I might as well run with a topic that was mooted by Kleuskenn in the last post on this thread.
Anyone who has been following this forum - or perhaps I should say, trying to follow this forum- would have picked up that an awful lot of the posts on this thread are junk. There is a great deal of churn, with many posts being short and vacuous, and new threads being regularly kicked off and old ones revived, seemingly at random. That is often a tell-tale sign that smurf accounts are at play.
And as Kleuskenn indicated, you can't help but arch an eyebrow when you read over the contributions of some posters here.
One poster who first appeared on the VMT thread way back in 2019 immediately comes to mind.
The poster's unbridled enthusiasm for this stock - they only ever seemed to post on the VMT threads- quickly attracted the ire and suspicions of some other posters on the thread. Initially, It was rather difficult to explain this posters singular obsession with this one stock.
However, in one missive in 2020, this poster revealed one piece of information that seemed to resolve the conundrum:
':...I'm from Europe myself, and I can tell you these bikes have multiplied over the last months!...'
Given that Super Soco were proving to be a hit in Europe at the time, I felt that the above revelation sufficiently explained why the poster was so fixated with this one stock, and I thus gave the poster the benefit of the doubt.
That was at least until I read another comment by the said poster just over two years later:
'...My prediction is $0.90 by Christmas this year. (Or $1.00) It's getting harder to hide this company on the world stage. Facts are true and we are the number one worldwide. Whoever lives in Sydney, we need to have a catch up when re reach $1...'
So the poster now seemed to be suggesting that he lives in Sydney, and not Europe? Or perhaps he was always living in Sydney, but born in Europe?
But if that was the case, how is it that he seemed to know that Super Soco was taking off in Europe? And if he was living locally, and not in Europe, why is it that the poster seemed to be only interested in just the one listed Australian stock? There were a few too many questions for my liking.
Earlier this year, one day when I was keeping an eye on the activity stream, I noticed that this poster did suddenly seem to have briefly picked up some interest in one other stock, and one which, on the face of it, had absolutely nothing to do with Vmoto:
Why was Kleuskenn, who had previously never shown any interest in any stock other than Vmoto, suddenly giving a thumbs up to a random mining stock?
The thing is, the above stock isn't quite as random as it appears at first glance. Both Vmoto and the above mining stock do indeed have something in common: A certain major shareholder by the name of Raymond Munro. Munro is the second largest shareholder in Hillgrove, and the third largest shareholder in VMT.
I did a bit of digging, and I noticed, rather curiously, that in one of Kleuskenn's earlier posts, he made a specific mention of this major shareholder:
All very curious. I wonder if it is coincidental that one regular poster on the Vmoto forum also frequently pops up on the forum of that mining stock?.
I'm generally not in the habit of drawing attention to other posters who I feel might not be the real deal. But I should note that it was Kleuskenn who was the one to first moot such an accusations in relation to another poster. And if you are calling for other posters to be subjected to scutiny, you need to also be open to scrutiny yourself. What is it that they say about stone-throwers and glass houses?
Ultimately, I agree with Kleuskenn's allegation that there are fake accounts being employed on this forum. Based on what I've seen here over the years, there seems to be plenty of evidence pointing in that direction.
(20min delay)