Hi guys
I mentioned during the late December spike that I sold out and have an extremely negligible holding. Barely commented in last few months (besides the Jan meeting update) as there was no change in my holding and did not want to comment as an “evil non holding downramper”
Purchased a bit today, finally. My decision to sell during the December spike was obviously correct from medium term and not sure if I just got lucky or whether there was some sound logic but I’ll share some thoughts on the last few months’ movement, in any case. Long comment coming up.
1/ WGX deal (Extremely negative)
More I think of it the less I can understand it. It should never even have come to that stage. IMO, it is warning to
investors that they cannot take anything for granted and assume TON is a hold and forget, because past experience has shown that this is not the case at all. I’ve been
spooked ever since and I can only assume that a lot of shareholders are wary of getting in after that, which would have had some impact on share price over last few months. Entire purchase side of some 20 buyers or so was visible yesterday with some 2.5 million shares to be bought. Just imagine if we had issued those 357 million free shares and they were all dumped on market at market price!
@jackarooz and
@Trask posted several great posts around that time warning of consequences of the WGX deal. (Where has Trask disappeared by the way?)
2/ Battery materials downtrend and our neighbor downtrend (negative)
Several
cobalt stocks, lithium stocks, our neighbour etc have all had downtrends over the last couple of months and could explain some of the sentiment effect on TON too
3/ Possible support around 7c (positive)
Last time share price was lower than this was around Aug-Sep 2017. It
found support during the fall in November 2017 at around 7c, and could possibly find support again....hopefully. Alternatively, this could become resistance if support fails.
4/ Somers pump (very positive in short term)
Well, many are not going to like this point but
Somers usually find a way of getting out at a profit. So, if they’ve taking a lot of stock at 8c, then we possibly have a good chance of getting
share price over 8c in medium term
5/ Tax loss selling (negative)
Remember last year's movement? Share price fell to around 6c or something in May with one sharp spike taking us to around 8c and then a
sharp downtrend that lasted months over tax loss selling time. Potential of something of the sort again always exists
6/ Technicals (mixed)
https://www.aussiebulls.com/SignalPage.aspx?lang=en&Ticker=TON.AX
Aussiebulls has a "short" call, but with a warning that bear market rallies could be vicious.
Also elit has posted some nice charts and if he is right, then we could always be due for a sharp rise.
Elit - daily
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ton-chart.2683907/page-102?post_id=32751703
Elit – weekly
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ton-chart.2683907/page-100?post_id=32743633
I don’t know if people remember but @
elit had very accurately predicted TON’s rise last year around 6 c or so, where he had said that TON’s chart was showing possibility of huge rise.
@elit @jackarooz hope you two can get along. I for one value both your comments a lot, which really help me in my decisions on TON!
7/ Somers and Minjar (General comment)
Just want to add a few words that would probably not be too popular on this board but I have to say what I feel.
@ckchristian who used to post a lot on TON earlier posted this few days back
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/an...nicanda-hill.4149880/page-67?post_id=32701867
I’ve got to say that the same thoughts have been in my head since long. I know this opinion is not going to be the most popular one but I’ve found it very hard to criticize them. As ck mentioned,
they co-saved TON. Many would feel that they have been getting a good deal out of TON at retail shareholder’s expense but honestly,
we would have had nothing if not for their capital. Even for this CR, where is the retail support? I remember some debates when we were in admin of how some were talking of 2c capital raisings, etc. and a maximum of 10c sommmmmmme daaaaay! We have at least gone much above that and have had a few opportunities to get off around 10c – Dec 2016 on first day of relisting, Sep 2017, Dec 2017.
Like I said I understand the criticisms too!
8/ Admin costs / constant capital raisings / sentiment suppressed / avoiding bankruptcy (negative)
Admin costs seem to be quite high and we are consistently having capital raisings for the same. IMO, TON really need to look into this. We are coming dangerously close to having no cash every quarter; so I’m really not sure how management expect TON share price to rise if sentiment is constantly being suppressed every quarter. Yes, this is much better than going into VA again for sure. But these points really are related and management needs to give it a thought –
Capital raisings /sentiment / avoiding bankruptcy / controlling admin costs. Ideally, we should have had a proper capital raise at one go so that sentiment is not constantly suppressed.
9/ Capital raisings at higher price (positive)
I don’t think anyone has pointed this out but I’ve been pleased that at least after last year’s low, we are having capital raisings at higher prices. After the placement to Minjar at around
5 c in mid 2017, we had 7c raising late last year and 8c this time.
10 / Takeover (positive)
Lots of talk of takeover and always a positive that could happen overnight
11/ FOMO (positive)
Got to admit that at various times during the last few months I did get a bit of FOMO each time TON was rising and there were plenty of swing – trade opportunities at least.
AT this price and with TON’s fundamentals, it does not take much to have a bit of FOMO
12/ Lost opportunities for share price rise / decisions which could possibly have been different (very negative)
This point is pretty important and I just want to highlight several lost opportunities for share price rise / decisions which maybe could have been different, and how TON has been reactive rather than proactive –
a/
No talk of Nicanda for ages. In the meantime, our neighbor had a sharp rise last year, and we only started talking of Nicanda once downtrend had started
b/ Exactly same case with
vanadium as vanadium stocks’ meteoric rise was ignored
c/ Capital raisings
every few months which is sure to kill momentum
d/
Coming close to bankruptcy every few months which affects sentiment and warns of imminent capital raisings.
e/
WGX fiasco which really killed sentiment
Some of above could have been easily avoided
13/ Minjar not topping up (negative)
IMO, a potentially big concern that Minjar has not been topping up
14/ Downtrend not ended yet (negative)
AS of now, we are still in a downtrend over last few months.
15/ Conclusions
TON seems to be worth a punt at this price. I’m not sure what I’m in right now as - investor, swing trader, etc. I just felt at this price, it made more sense to buy first and ask questions later – at least a small parcel, which I did today.
Taking all factors into consideration, we could at least have some gain from here…..at some point of time.
I have absolutely no idea as to what is a good sell price. So please take your own decisions and DYOR as I myself could end up selling for a few pips if I feel the situation warrants.
But yeah, positives seem to slightly outweigh negatives for now. I’m wary of tax loss selling though and probably might be out well before that (June 30) myself. Taking it one day at a time as always with TON!
Cheers
