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11:07
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Originally posted by WCJ
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I would ordinarily say no chance, that support at 5.5-5.6c looks fairly solid although I was thinking the same about the zone of resistance above and that has done nothing to hold the SP up. Sentiment is abundantly clear on the chart. If you look back to the great options debacle of 2016 there was significant and sustained selling pressure and the SP still faired pretty well considering. Comparative to the last month, there has been a significant drop in SP on pretty low volume so I am not as confident as I ordinarily would be in that support level holding. ATM there is not a lot of supply sub 7c so the SP could bounce back pretty quickly, but once it reaches 7c again I would expect heavy selling pressure due to placement selling from 42 million odd placement shares and that overlying resistance from 6.9c to 7.9c. Another thing to consider is placement holders can still sell sub 7c and make money due to the free attaching option so short of significant results from Yanmana or a sooner than expected off-take agreement for SOP there is bugger all chance I'm going to recover any of my losses anytime soon. The company has 4.5 million options at 12.5c and another 4.5 million exercisable at 17.5c on the 30th November this year so there is plenty of incentive to move the SP, my biggest concern is managements capability and willingness to do so. The fact that they have just done such a massive raise and the free attaching options from that raise only set a target of 12c for 3 years time when options expiring next year and the year after have a exercise price of up to 22.5c is somewhat concerning.
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Well 5.5c didn't hold up very well, next support at 5c. If that goes we're off towards 4c with only minor resistance en route, this is getting a bit ridiculous!
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