EGR 4.08% 9.4¢ ecograf limited

Ann: Epanko Bankable Feasibility Study, page-35

  1. 1,758 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 686
    My take on the BFS:

    - A little disappointed that the capital expenditure is over $20M USD higher than the scoping study. Having said that though it's understandable given the company's ambitions to scale up to 100ktpa in years to come - they need to ensure both the initial plant and infrastructure can accommodate this.

    - Also and naturally a little disappointed that the operating costs were measurably higher than the scoping study but once again there is great potential to reduce these costs by using grid power and a railway line for transport.

    - The increased basket price can by attributed to an increase in the amount of large flake graphite & increase in the overall purity. This figure can also be greatly relied upon given it's source (which will be crucial with the finance discussions).

    - Absolutely full credit to the team for taking only a couple of weeks to review the draft before releasing to the market.

    - What needs to be mentioned also is the pre-tax NPV calculated is only based on the current ore defined and therefore is much lower than what would be the case if they had more ore to play around with i.e. based on the current ore level it would have been impossible to base the BFS on increasing production to 100ktpa.

    I have no doubt that the team will be able to raise the required capital to get this going, achieving this with as little dilution as possible.

    With the share price think about it like this: let's just say the price stagnates at this level due to the constant selling even after the TK off-take agreement is announced & finance is obtained. I am sure we all will continue buying at this ridiculous price to the point where basically the whole share register is populated by people who understand the fundamentals and realise that in a year and a half this company will have EBITDA of $33.6M USD per annum.

    But of course that won't happen because funds & institutions will be well positioned by then to reap the rewards of holding shares in this company.

    The scene is set now for TK to confirm a binding agreement & finance discussions advanced.

    Oh and also something that hasn't been touched on yet, "... in parallel further progress its second 100% owned graphite project at Merelani East ..." Looks like there is a clear message in that statement.

    SO a quick wrap up - people may have been caught up in the disappointment of further dilution due to increased capital costs but at the end of the day our capital costs are much more favourable than our peers & even given the possibility of further dilution buying in at this price will provide one hell of a return (this is why I have topped up today and the last few days).
    Last edited by Tangible: 23/07/15
 
watchlist Created with Sketch. Add EGR (ASX) to my watchlist
arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch. arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch.