Thank you for your comment Mr Watson.My responses and personal...

Thank you for your comment Mr Watson.

My responses and personal thoughts are as follows:

1) The Australian assets should be CF positive at >US$120;
2) The key takeaway from current price action should be that the CFR china price less freight is very close to the FOB price. For quite some time now producers have been effectively forced to discount to clear volume into China. What the narrowing of this spread means is that the >US$40/t arbitrage between China domestic coking coal prices and Queensland coal looks set to entice China to increase imports.
3) Buchanan is another story but the USA prospects for HCC pricing are the best they have been since February and Europe steel production is on the rise which will support
4) Yes steel margins are tight, but roughly it takes 1.6mt of Iron and 0.6t of Coking coal to make a tonne of crude steel, so price sensitivity should be lower to coking coal increases than Iron ore, in anywise a contraction of steel margins and solid macro data points (in China the largest steel producing nation) to the need for steel prices to increase.
5) Coking coal should also benefit from a restocking cycle of Asians mills have seen the weather forecast for Q4/Q1 and typically when they see this they increase stock levels to secure their supply chain from supply interruption.

Of course DYOR and I probably know sh1t.