moowee,
I agree it's not a straight up calculation to determine a specific value attributable to dilution as funds were raised for the acquisition of ALO (via the placement to AusSuper and RCF) as well as the company conducting a rights issue (to shareholders).
For simplicity, I calculate that the placement value (of A$121m) is the allocation towards the increased asset base whilst the A$119m component (the rights issue) is simply capital raising not attributed to the value of the assets acquired (yes, I know that's not accurate - however, there is a component that is dilutionary and needs to be reflected in the share price).
Therefore, I have estimated/ assumed the 1:7.6 component of the larger capital base (post placement) is the amount shareholders are diluted (1/7.6 or 13.16%).
Of course, this will be meaningless in a couple of days time as the market will price in other factors. But, given we will see no trading between now and Wednesday I estimate we will see the market open with a price that reflects some level of dilution.
The benefits of the acquisition will eventually get priced in, just not on day 1 of recommencement of trading - IMO.
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