Ann: Equity raising to finance Sangomar Phase 1 Presentation, page-123

It's pointless because of the phased approach but u can do a ballprk estimate for the first 3-5 yrs Rolla.
They'll break-even in just a tad over 3 yrs using the figures provided this morning.

Yr 0: Net outlay to first oil is USD -492m,
Yr1,2,3: FCF of USD180mil each year.
Discount those 3 by 10%, ie yr 1: 180/1.1, yr-2: 180/1.21, Yr-3: 180/1.331 (ie 10% disc rate)
Add the 4 values. NPV10 is -64.3mil USD.

This is for USD65/bbl, so first qtr of the Year 4 is when they break even,
Or
if u want to use USD574mil capital outlay, then break even in early Yr-5 assuming 100k BOPD flow for that duration & POO of 65/bbl & other variables mentioned at forex of 69c.

Brk-even is much quicker if POO runs to 75/bbl & they can generate any saving on Capital for which one does a tornado curve (ie sensitivity analysis). IMO, the company should have provided a production profile curve & revenue profile curves alongwith USD 540 mil for Ph1-2 combined.


P.S. - that 30% u mentioned is what one calls as CoD risk factor (i.e: 100-30 = 70% CoD which becomes 100% as they complete the project).